1/27/2012 10:41:48 AM
Good Friday Morning Traders (and Investors),
This morning's GDP came in a little weak, putting the markets at a critical point. As promised last week, I'm going to share the first quarter of my 2012 forecast:
Today is a key reversal date and this shows our outlook for 2012 (which I put together last year). I'm only showing the first quarter because at the end of the day, these dates can invert (as with any cyclical view of the market). Today's a critical day because we are "in the window" for a reversal and a reversal here would put the cycle forecast back on a very bearish track. Seems very unlikely at this point, but that's how people feel at most tops.
As a heads up, we just closed out last trade of 2011 for a 9.9% gain (on the QQQ) or double that if you use leverage (which I do). 2011 wasn't my best year by any means, but with that trade and using leverage put us over 40%. And I also adfded a few options trades that were up over 100% in the last quarter...
2011 was up over 84% (which is close to my best performance). I tend not to discuss my performance a lot, because to me, market timing is more about the action of the market, than about the performance of a specific trade. In fact, the bias of trade performance can negatively impact your trading. I'll post the trades up on my site for you data nuts to review.
So what makes today a critical day is that if we get an inversion to this cycle, then we could see another leg higher. I'm not there yet, I'm positioning short the market here, and short oil as well, as the optimism in Call buying combined with the lack of volatility suggests oil could retrace lower here. Again, all this depend on the action in dollar and bonds, which are the big picture bosses of the market.
Here's my view of OIL:
So, if you want to see the rest of the 2012 forecast, and our current positions, and follow our oil trade, you can click the link below to sign up for a trial to my advisory service.
In addition, we'll be doubling the price of all our services in February, so by signing up today, you'll be locking in the current lower price for as long as you remain a subscriber.
PS: We're also adding a 'retirement' focus to our daily article. I have some models that can help those with retirement investments time some of their transactions much better, resulting in larger returns over the long haul. And since I've been doing this (writing daily articles) for over 12 years now, it's unlikely I'm going anywhere :)
PPS: You'll notice a link below to forward this to a friend, and for them to sign up to receive future updates. If my forecast for the market plays out, I'm sure they will thank you quite a bit. Thanks in advance for helping me get my message out!
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