Golden Cross Can Lead To Golden Loss

By: Chris Ciovacco | Tue, Jan 31, 2012
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A golden cross occurs when a market's 50-day moving average crosses above its 200-day moving average. We believe conditions have improved since central banks have cranked up the printing presses, which means the recent "golden cross" in the S&P 500 may turn out to be golden for investors. At the 15:08 mark of a January 17 video, we noted in 2008 emerging markets were "decoupling" from the economic problems in the United States, much as we are told the U.S. is decoupling from Europe today. While the emerging markets were acting as market leaders in '08, as the U.S. is today, the index experienced a golden cross (see below).

As you can see from the chart below, a golden cross can be followed by bearish outcomes as well. In fact, the emerging markets had already peaked when the golden cross occurred in May 2008. Therefore, it is important we keep an open mind about developments in Europe and the possible outcomes in the U.S. after the S&P 500's recent golden cross.

Back home in the present day United States, we have high levels of bullish sentiment and an extended market. As we noted in the January 31 video below, the S&P 500 may make another charge higher. The outcome between current levels and 1,343 may set the tone for the next three to six weeks.

After you click play, use the button in the lower-right corner of the video player to view in full-screen mode. Hit Esc to exit full-screen mode.

We have heard for weeks "a deal is imminent" between Greece and its private creditors. Despite the brave face, the situation is far from fully resolved according to the Guardian (01/31/2012):

Greek officials launched a vociferous behind the scenes attack on European Union and International Monetary Fund negotiators as talks in Athens over the country's mounting debts appeared to stall.

Before a deal can be finalized, the European Union (EU) and Greece must agree on the terms of the next bailout payment. In those negotiations, the EU is turning the austerity screws again with Germany applying the most force. Getting additional cuts passed in Greece is no walk in the park. From the Guardian:

Prime minister Lucas Papademos told aides that a crisis meeting of party leaders would be called as early as Thursday to thrash out a response to an increasingly intransigent negotiating team sent by Brussels, which is demanding severe austerity measures before sanctioning a further €130bn (£109bn) of bailout funds.

"The troika doesn't appear to be willing to accept any concessions whatsoever on reducing the minimum wage and scrapping bonuses," said the government aide. "No political party is willing to move either, saying wage cuts are a red line they are simply not going to cross. You tell me how this is going to be resolved. We have no idea and we're very worried."

While both CCM market models have jumped back into bull market territory, the Bull Market Sustainability Index (BMSI) is approaching levels that are typically associated with market corrections (see arrow right side).

 


 

Chris Ciovacco

Author: Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco
Ciovacco Capital Management

Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at www.ciovaccocapital.com.

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Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC is an independent money management firm based in Atlanta, Georgia. CCM helps individual investors and businesses, large & small; achieve improved investment results via research and globally diversified investment portfolios. Since we are a fee-based firm, our only objective is to help you protect and grow your assets. Our long-term, theme-oriented, buy-and-hold approach allows for portfolio rebalancing from time to time to adjust to new opportunities or changing market conditions.

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