Swallow Iraq: The Little Bird Knew

By: Randolph Buss | Thu, Jan 6, 2005
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Just for the sake of anybody who might have been living under a rock for the last 18 months or has simply watched too much FOX or CNN news, I have to give it to you straight: US Secretary of State Colin Powell tried his best with his "movable chemical labs" speech at the UN. We know they have WMD.

Unfortunately, we all misinterpreted this whole thing. WMD always stood for "Want More (oil) Drilling" rigs.

I know this because a little bird flew overhead, landed on my shoulder and whispered in my ear "psst, go take a look at those US petrol charts". So that's what I did. PS. I think the bird was a swallow.

Lo and behold, the WMD "secret" was clear for all to see. Sometimes we just need to find the right clues and just avoid asking ex-inspector Scott Ritter and ober-Chief Hans Blix, or at least know the right birds.

Evidence Item #1: US' own production of petroleum products has fallen substantially in the last 20 years!

Evidence Item #2: US' export of petroleum products has stablilzed / fallen in the last 15 years!

Evidence Item #3: US' own consumption of petroleum products has risen substantially in the last 20 years, near 40%.

Evidence Item #4: US' import of petroleum products has risen substantially in the last 20 years!

So, we've come full circle : I continue with my four (4) pieces of evidence above that the "energy story" is not only NOT OVER, it has not even started - wait, I take that back - it has started and Iraq is a prime example of the consequences. Whomever "owns" oil, basically owns it. "It" being Power & Control. So, when people watch that crude oil price and start howling like overly excited children as the price backs off $1 USD per barrel, you will know how to put it all in perspective.

As I have talked about in the DINL Newsletter, Commodity Scarcity is just ONE of the things on my big picture list. Oil and Oil Services are but one thing each should have in their portfolio.

More on this in upcoming issues - if you would like to know more, please sign up for a free subscription to Der Invest Informant here.


Randolph Buss

Author: Randolph Buss

Randolph Buss
Berlin, Germany

Randolph Buss, currently works in portfolio & asset management | commodity fund advisory & management | macro investment research as editor and publisher of his newsletter read in over 45 countries.

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