Daily Analysis

By: TheWaveTrading | Thu, Feb 16, 2012
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In an extended move it is often the case that price does not unfold the perfect last wave of an ending pattern. This is what most likely happened yesterday with the Dow failing to complete with a higher high the potential Ending Diagonal while SPX achieved the higher high with an unclean fifth.

The fact of the matter is that we have another potential topping action, and this one feels different from the other 2 failed attempts to complete the up leg off the December 19 low.

Probably the best example of the potential reversal can be seen in the AAPL chart below where the stock gapped up (exhaustion gap), traded to new highs and reversed strongly to the down side leaving a very bearish shooting star with huge volume.

AAPL
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Momentum indicators are now undoubtedly flashing a sell signal:

Regarding SPX yesterday's bearish action has not inflicted yet any damage on the daily time frame, as price is struggling not lose the lower tl support of a likely bearish rising wedge.

SPX
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Therefore as I always reiterate: when price is involved in a reversal pattern it has to establish a lower low & a lower high. In the case of SPX we just had an intraday lower low of only 3 ticks, but this "failed" attempt can quickly change today if/with a gap down and go.

The level that should likely trigger sell stops is at 1337.35

Therefore even though SPX does not have the "official" kick off the overdue correction, I am giving a much larger probability that the correction has been "activated".

Recall that may preferred scenario calls for a top of the wave (3) of (C), within the Zig Zag that price is unfolding from the October 4 low.

Then the wave (4) pullback could last a couple of weeks at least if it unfolds a Flat or a Triangle (EW alternation guideline)

The obvious target is located in the 1300 area. If price closes the gap at 1289 I will reassess this scenario.

Regarding the EUR with 5 consecutive down days it is getting oversold but the short term outlook can deteriorate considerably with and eod print below the horizontal support at 1.3020 - 50 dsma

With only a 3 -wave rebound we have to be aware that it can be fully retraced. Keep in mind that SPX could drop +- 5%.

EUR/USD
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TheWaveTrading

Author: TheWaveTrading

TheWaveTrading

Contact: If you would like to contact the author, you can e-mail him at thewavetrading@gmail.com

The main objective of this project is to share my views on several markets and asset classes.

In the initial stage TWT website will be a free service.

My main focus will be the equity market with SPX being the leader but I will also follow US equity sectors, major European indices, fixed income, currencies and commodities markets.

My analysis is based upon traditional Technical Analysis, Elliot Wave guidelines and investor sentiment.

My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on the long and short side and mainly with leveraged ones (2 x & 3 x).

The advantage of ETF investments is that it allows getting involved in equity indices & sectors, currencies, fixed income, commodities etc.

Therefore the main purpose of TWT will be to establish investment strategies regardless if the market is in an up trend or in a down trend, leveraging the chosen scenario while managing the risk by establishing protective stop losses.

Hence I will always define the risk, I will try to let winners run the wave and I will cut the losses if my strategy is wrong.

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