Reasons To Be Bearish Into the Ides of March
The Greek bond payment is due March the 20th (the Ides of March is the 13th), yet a quick scan around the www most see that the deal is done. Not so fast grasshopper, as things are not what they seem.
US Banks are at tough resistance see here: Bank stocks are at the wall of massive resistance
There is a separate article today where Germany is going to send some of its tax collectors to Greece. As Germany is refusing to increase the funds for the ESM or the EFSF; the IMF is demanding it as a precondition of additional aid. The G-20 meeting appears not to provide any further funds for Europe until Europe has provided more themselves. It is getting down to a "shut-up or put-up" moment for Germany as there is obvious serious dissension in the German Parliament on the next round of the Greek bailout package and also difficulties in the Parliaments of Finland and the Netherlands.
My advice is to put all of the headlines aside because they are not accurate. No deal has actually been struck and there is just the possibility of one at present. The PSI is also nowhere near certain. There has certainly been a proposal made with innumerable and probably impossible conditions to be met by Greece including a demand for a Constitutional change, which under the current Constitution, cannot even be voted on until 2013. I often wonder if Europe really wants to bail Greece out or if Germany is not forcing so many conditions that they are trying to have them exit the Euro on their own so the Germans are not seen as the Lord High Executioner; to quote Mr. Gilbert & Sullivan.
The debt payment of March 20 looms for Greece while the IMF now says they will not discuss their part of the Greek loan until March 13. If the IMF only funds $17.4Bn as suggested by the German Finance Minister then the Eurozone will have to come up with even more money which no nation in Europe has yet approved. At then end it is going to get quite messy in my opinion with so many forces converging at the March 20 juxtaposition. You may hold what opinion you like about all of this but I urge caution and some additional cash on your table as this may not play out how anyone expects it.
The European Union has filed a laundry list of complaints against Chinese dumping, from shoes to fasteners. Ceramics, for example. Household ceramics got hit last week. In 2011, it was building ceramics. In 2010, it was ceramic tiles, which led to a punitive tax of 69.7% -- punitive for consumers who ended up having to pay higher prices, though it was a nice.gif?lastmodified=201202200000t to European producers. Now, it has chosen another target, Chinese steel. But with nearly half of the world's steel production, the Chinese steel industry is the bully on the block. And it flexed its pumped-up muscles -- putting at stake the very manna that European officials have been praying for.
Rumors of the Chinese savior appearing on the horizon goosed financial markets innumerable times. China, out of the goodness of its big heart, would use its $3.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves to bail out the Eurozone with the stroke of a plastic pen. Turns out, China didn't have a big heart but a list of unpalatable demands -- so unpalatable that even a desperate European panhandling delegation sent to Beijing in November turned them down.
COMMENTS: The next few weeks is "put up or shut up"... for Germany. The stock market has been goosed up at least 10% by false hopes and bullsh*t rumors. The cheques are not signed for the Greek bailout, China will not bailout Europe. And this is NOT priced in the market. A 10% correction is one press of the red sell button away. Watch out for distribution as Dow is at 13000.
Ideas for shorts: GS, BAC, F to March the 20th.