Is there a better environment then a global credit crisis to replicate the
arc of emotions and reflexes in the markets as credit is squeezed from one
corner of the globe to the next?
It simply grows big beautiful ferns, I mean fractals - same thing.
And while the 1st wave of the crisis was home grown and materialized over
the course of one year, the 2nd wave has very much taken on the same shape
and proportional dislocations to the financial sector. Granted it has transpired
over a longer time frame than those halcyon days of 2007, but the technical
damage, momentum and performance signatures are there in plain view.
Whether the time differential is the efforts of our monetary handlers perceived
and new found dexterity in dealing with the tentacles of a global credit crunch
the second time around, or just the consequence of a slowing financial contagion/universe
- will be up to the academics and historians in the years to come. But I can
attest to the similarities in sentiment, the charts and the degree of hubris
now being dispensed from both traders, the financial media and central bankers
themselves - in curtailing the effects of the crisis.
Although I am an active trader, I have always taken a broad perspective when
approaching the markets. I respect the Big Picture and attempt to place each
piece of information within its appropriate context and timeframe. I have found
that without this approach, there is very little understanding of ones expectations
in the market and an endless potential for risk.
I am not a stock picker - but trade the broader market itself in varying timeframes.
I want to know which way the prevailing wind is blowing, where the doldrums
can be expected and where the shoals will likely rise. I will not claim to
know which vessel is the fastest or most comfortable for passage - but I can
read the charts and know the risks.
I am not a salesperson for the market and its many wares. I observe it, contextualize
its moving parts - both visible and discrete - and interpret.
I practice Market Anthropology - Welcome to my notes.
Erik Swarts is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances
should any content be used or interpreted as a recommendation for any investment,
trade or approach to the markets. Trading and investing can be hazardous to
your wealth. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader
or by his or her registered investment advisor. This is strictly for educational
and informational purposes only. All opinions expressed by Mr. Swarts are subject
to change without notice, and the reader should always obtain current information
and perform their own due diligence before making any investment or trading
decision.
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