Daily Analysis

By: TheWaveTrading | Thu, Mar 8, 2012
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Yesterday I mentioned that due to an extreme high reading of CPCE and low one of the McClellan oscillator: "Therefore without analysing the internal structure of the sell off from the Top of the assumed wave (3), theses readings should be respected and treated as a warning of a pending possibly large rebound attempt."

Bulls did not hesitate from the opening bell into eod achieving an impressive bounce, but this action does not modify my short term scenario which calls for price to unfold a corrective EWP with the goal of establishing the low of the wave (IV) of (C) from the November 25 low.

As a reminder I am expecting either a Flat or a Triangle, but a lot more price information is needed in order to begin to have some confidence on a particular EWP.


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I am strongly confident that we have a confirmed correction in progress and a most likely setup should take place shortly for more selling pressure.

We know that:

If price is unfolding a Zig Zag then the pending wave (C) is expected to achieve at least an equality length of 36 points, hence depending upon where the current wave (B) tops, probably the next leg down could reach the area of the 50 dsma and last month NFP gap up = 1325,54 - 1323.

Then it is a matter of waiting to see where the current bounce will fade. I guess that, in the range of the 20d = 1358 - Tuesday's gap down = 1364.33, price should exhaust the bounce.

If price closes the gap at 1364.33 then we should not rule out a retest of the previous high.

Among the "dozen of things" that I usually monitor, today I will focus my attention on AAPL and the EUR.


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We have plenty of risk events ahead:

Tomorrow I may not be able to publish the daily up date, if I don't, I already wish you a great weekend.

 


 

TheWaveTrading

Author: TheWaveTrading

TheWaveTrading

Contact: If you would like to contact the author, you can e-mail him at thewavetrading@gmail.com

The main objective of this project is to share my views on several markets and asset classes.

In the initial stage TWT website will be a free service.

My main focus will be the equity market with SPX being the leader but I will also follow US equity sectors, major European indices, fixed income, currencies and commodities markets.

My analysis is based upon traditional Technical Analysis, Elliot Wave guidelines and investor sentiment.

My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on the long and short side and mainly with leveraged ones (2 x & 3 x).

The advantage of ETF investments is that it allows getting involved in equity indices & sectors, currencies, fixed income, commodities etc.

Therefore the main purpose of TWT will be to establish investment strategies regardless if the market is in an up trend or in a down trend, leveraging the chosen scenario while managing the risk by establishing protective stop losses.

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Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/