Yesterday I mentioned that due to an extreme high reading of CPCE and low one of the McClellan oscillator: "Therefore without analysing the internal structure of the sell off from the Top of the assumed wave (3), theses readings should be respected and treated as a warning of a pending possibly large rebound attempt."
Bulls did not hesitate from the opening bell into eod achieving an impressive bounce, but this action does not modify my short term scenario which calls for price to unfold a corrective EWP with the goal of establishing the low of the wave (IV) of (C) from the November 25 low.
As a reminder I am expecting either a Flat or a Triangle, but a lot more price information is needed in order to begin to have some confidence on a particular EWP.
I am strongly confident that we have a confirmed correction in progress and a most likely setup should take place shortly for more selling pressure.
We know that:
- An Ending Diagonal has completed the impulsive up leg off the December 19 low.
- The selling thrust has confirmed a trend reversal.
- The internal structure of the initial down leg is corrective, but it should form 2 down legs within a potential Zig Zag.
If price is unfolding a Zig Zag then the pending wave (C) is expected to achieve at least an equality length of 36 points, hence depending upon where the current wave (B) tops, probably the next leg down could reach the area of the 50 dsma and last month NFP gap up = 1325,54 - 1323.
Then it is a matter of waiting to see where the current bounce will fade. I guess that, in the range of the 20d = 1358 - Tuesday's gap down = 1364.33, price should exhaust the bounce.
If price closes the gap at 1364.33 then we should not rule out a retest of the previous high.
Among the "dozen of things" that I usually monitor, today I will focus my attention on AAPL and the EUR.
- AAPL should also have a corrective pattern in progress and if the count that I am working with is correct then price has to complete a wave (C) up within a Zig Zag. The projected target is at 544.86
- EURUSD: The large impulsive down leg has clearly shifted the trend to the down side. I don't have a confident count with the regard to the over all EWP from the January's lows but for the s/t time frame the current weak bounce should be a countertrend move. Therefore when it stalls then the SPX second down leg should begin.
We have plenty of risk events ahead:
- ECB meeting (today).
- NFP on Friday.
- Euro Group holds conference call on Greece on Friday
- IMF meeting on Greek bailout next Tuesday
- FOMC next Tuesday
- Quarterly OPEX next Friday
Tomorrow I may not be able to publish the daily up date, if I don't, I already wish you a great weekend.