Daily Analysis

By: TheWaveTrading | Fri, Mar 9, 2012
Print Email

Today we will witness at the opening of the US market and probably during the first two hours of trading an excitement moment as the entire planet will be trading the price reaction to the NFP.

The time has come to validate or kill my short-term scenario of SPX that calls for:

  1. Price has established the top of the wave (3) of (C) from the November 25 low.
  2. The correction of the wave (4) is in progress.
  3. The first down leg is expected to unfold a Zig Zag therefore the current bounce is a wave (B) that is expected to establish a lower high.

I have no clues yet regarding the EWP that will establish the low of the wave (4). At the moment I am guessing either a Flat or a Triangle. We should not rule out either that, given the strength of the US market, the next down could complete the EWP, but I doubt it.

Larger Image

Since price has recovered above the 0.618 retracement and it has even closed Tuesday's gap down we have to be open minded since


But maybe too many if......

Now as far as the technical indicators are concerned nothing has changed. We still have sell signals across the board.

Larger Image

Yesterday I mentioned that I would have closely monitored AAPL and the EUR:

Larger Image

Here In my opinion the odds are very large that price has completed the counter trend bounce with a truncated wave (5) of (C) within an Ending Diagonal. In addition price has confirmed a likely Head & Shoulder and atm it has even lost the horizontal support at 1.3237

If the EUR has finished the "bounce" and this afternoon AAPL confirms the wave (B) EWP then the SPX scenario that I am working with will be on track.

Larger Image

If the EUR, AAPL & SPX short-term scenarios play out then TVIX should break to the upside a potential bullish falling wedge.

Larger Image

Have a great weekend everyone.




Author: TheWaveTrading


Contact: If you would like to contact the author, you can e-mail him at thewavetrading@gmail.com

The main objective of this project is to share my views on several markets and asset classes.

In the initial stage TWT website will be a free service.

My main focus will be the equity market with SPX being the leader but I will also follow US equity sectors, major European indices, fixed income, currencies and commodities markets.

My analysis is based upon traditional Technical Analysis, Elliot Wave guidelines and investor sentiment.

My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on the long and short side and mainly with leveraged ones (2 x & 3 x).

The advantage of ETF investments is that it allows getting involved in equity indices & sectors, currencies, fixed income, commodities etc.

Therefore the main purpose of TWT will be to establish investment strategies regardless if the market is in an up trend or in a down trend, leveraging the chosen scenario while managing the risk by establishing protective stop losses.

Hence I will always define the risk, I will try to let winners run the wave and I will cut the losses if my strategy is wrong.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is for educational purposes only, the information supplied is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.

Thewavetrading.com nor the owner can not be held responsible for any loses occurred from the information provided within the website.

The Information supplied cannot be copied or reproduced without the permission from the owner.

Copyright 2011-2016 TheWaveTrading

All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright © Safehaven.com