Daily Analysis

By: TheWaveTrading | Tue, Mar 13, 2012
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I cannot fight THEM with EWP rules and guidelines, so if the wave (5) of (C) is already in progress let be it.

I have discussed several times the technical reasons that in my opinion are suggesting that the wave (4) should have carried out a larger EWP correction, but the fact of the matters is that as long as bears are only able to achieve 3 -wave down legs then the odds that price can move higher are large as we have witnessed during the entire December up leg.


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So maybe I am a stubborn EW guy, looking for the proper price path but either way the price structure from the November lows is uncompleted and I also was looking for the final wave (5) of (C) up.

The option that price is unfolding a wave (B) is still valid but it is hanging by a thread.

As I mentioned on Sunday: "But If price remains above the 20 dsma = 1360 then a deviation from a proper EW rule will have occurred and lamentably my short-term scenario will be killed. In this case then I will have to respect that the final wave (5) of (C) is already in progress with a projected target in the range: 1407-1448."

In the technical front:


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The APPL wave (B) option I was suggesting is on quarantine while BAC Triangle is still valid, but again here we would be talking about just a (+/-) 3% correction.

Therefore to sum up:

The short-term price action still suggests that the correction could have more business to accomplish but my confidence atm is only 50%. Certainly a wave (5) requires more conviction from buyers, which has to translate in an improvement of the Mc Clellan oscillator and the NYSE Adv-Dec Volume.

Despite a non-eventful day with SPX closing with a spinning top two issues are standing out:


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Today the main event is FOMC rate decision; the focus will be on wording regarding any signal of an earlier reversal of monetary policy since Ben is expected to leave policy on hold.

 


 

TheWaveTrading

Author: TheWaveTrading

TheWaveTrading

Contact: If you would like to contact the author, you can e-mail him at thewavetrading@gmail.com

The main objective of this project is to share my views on several markets and asset classes.

In the initial stage TWT website will be a free service.

My main focus will be the equity market with SPX being the leader but I will also follow US equity sectors, major European indices, fixed income, currencies and commodities markets.

My analysis is based upon traditional Technical Analysis, Elliot Wave guidelines and investor sentiment.

My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on the long and short side and mainly with leveraged ones (2 x & 3 x).

The advantage of ETF investments is that it allows getting involved in equity indices & sectors, currencies, fixed income, commodities etc.

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Hence I will always define the risk, I will try to let winners run the wave and I will cut the losses if my strategy is wrong.

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TRUE MONEY SUPPLY

Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/