Robert Prechter talks to Fox Business News host Neil Cavuto about his latest
research on how social mood affects presidential re-election bids. In the
interview below, he reveals what is the most reliable indicator in predicting
incumbent re-election.
Download and read a landmark academic paper by Prechter, Goel,
Parker and Lampert that identifies the link between stock market performance
and presidential election winners. The research has been featured by ABC News,
CBS News, U.S. News and World Report, and many more outlets.
What is socionomics? Socionomics is a field of study deriving from
the hypothesis that social mood motivates the character of social action.
What do socionomists do? Socionomists model trends in finance, macroeconomics,
politics, fashion, entertainment, demographics and other areas of human social
action, present, past and future.
How long has socionomics been around? Prechter began developing the
idea in the 1970s and first reached a mass audience in a 1985 cover article
in Barron's. Since then, researchers have applied the hypothesis to explain
diverse social phenomena including election results, trends in popular culture,
the timing of epidemics and pandemics, the emergence of prohibition movements,
and financial manias and crashes.
Can I take a university course on socionomics? Yes, at two universities
we know of: The University of Delaware and Quinnipiac University in Connecticut.
The field is attracting more academics and researchers, so this list may grow.
Prechter and others have authored books, articles and peer-reviewed papers
about the theory and its application. Socionomists have made presentations
at academic conferences as well as such institutions as the London School
of Economics, MIT, Georgia Tech, SUNY, the University of Cambridge, the University
of Oxford and Trinity College Dublin.
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