Interview with Robert Prechter: Forecasting the Presidential Election

By: Socionomics Institute | Wed, Apr 4, 2012
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Robert Prechter talks to Fox Business News host Neil Cavuto about his latest research on how social mood affects presidential re-election bids. In the interview below, he reveals what is the most reliable indicator in predicting incumbent re-election.


Download and read a landmark academic paper by Prechter, Goel, Parker and Lampert that identifies the link between stock market performance and presidential election winners. The research has been featured by ABC News, CBS News, U.S. News and World Report, and many more outlets.

Download the full paper for free >>



Socionomics Institute

Author: Socionomics Institute

Socionomics Institute

What is socionomics? Socionomics is a field of study deriving from the hypothesis that social mood motivates the character of social action.

What do socionomists do? Socionomists model trends in finance, macroeconomics, politics, fashion, entertainment, demographics and other areas of human social action, present, past and future.

How long has socionomics been around? Prechter began developing the idea in the 1970s and first reached a mass audience in a 1985 cover article in Barron's. Since then, researchers have applied the hypothesis to explain diverse social phenomena including election results, trends in popular culture, the timing of epidemics and pandemics, the emergence of prohibition movements, and financial manias and crashes.

Can I take a university course on socionomics? Yes, at two universities we know of: The University of Delaware and Quinnipiac University in Connecticut. The field is attracting more academics and researchers, so this list may grow. Prechter and others have authored books, articles and peer-reviewed papers about the theory and its application. Socionomists have made presentations at academic conferences as well as such institutions as the London School of Economics, MIT, Georgia Tech, SUNY, the University of Cambridge, the University of Oxford and Trinity College Dublin.

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