Wag the Dog

By: Erik Swarts | Mon, Apr 16, 2012
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Romney and Obama

Although they rarely replicate along completely congruent parameters, long term analogs - when properly applied, can be excellent roadmaps for interpreting pivots. Here is the last secular turn the USD made compared to today.

Quiet an interesting timeframe, considering the elections this fall. From my perspective, the USD's fate is already sealed - but the pundits will certainly wag the dog and write a politically driven headline for its approaching breakout.

It's either going to be:

"Romney Wins - the Dollar Approves!"
"Obama Delivers - Dollar Holler!"

US Dollar Weekly 2009-2012

US Dollar Weekly 1993-1997

Of course considering the inverse relationship of a strengthening U.S currency with the equity markets, we also may see:

"Romney Wins - the Stock Market Dives!"
"Obama Delivers - a Knockout to the Market!"



Erik Swarts

Author: Erik Swarts

Erik Swarts
Market Anthropology

Although I am an active trader, I have always taken a broad perspective when approaching the markets. I respect the Big Picture and attempt to place each piece of information within its appropriate context and timeframe. I have found that without this approach, there is very little understanding of ones expectations in the market and an endless potential for risk.

I am not a stock picker - but trade the broader market itself in varying timeframes. I want to know which way the prevailing wind is blowing, where the doldrums can be expected and where the shoals will likely rise. I will not claim to know which vessel is the fastest or most comfortable for passage - but I can read the charts and know the risks.

I am not a salesperson for the market and its many wares. I observe it, contextualize its moving parts - both visible and discrete - and interpret.

I practice Market Anthropology - Welcome to my notes.

Erik Swarts is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content be used or interpreted as a recommendation for any investment, trade or approach to the markets. Trading and investing can be hazardous to your wealth. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. All opinions expressed by Mr. Swarts are subject to change without notice, and the reader should always obtain current information and perform their own due diligence before making any investment or trading decision.

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