Daily Analysis

By: TheWaveTrading | Wed, Apr 25, 2012
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Yesterday I expressed my concern that SPX's corrective counter trend move from the April 10 low was not over, since in both upward and downward directions price keeps tracing corrective structures.

I maintain the short-term scenario that calls for a pending wave (C) down since this is the logical conclusion as I have already explained several times.

Without an impulsive decline, EWP wise, I cannot consider completed the 3 -wave down leg off the April 2 top.

What is obvious is the absence of selling pressure, which is suggesting that if we get the expected wave (C) down it will probably not be a killer, but usually the equality target is satisfied.

The question is from where the wave (C) will begin?

Price is below the 50 d MA = 1380, If it recovers above it then price could stall at 1392-1398. It is a tricky moment since if price breaks above 1392 a Double Bottom projected target could come into play killing my short term bearish scenario which is consistent with basic EWP.

Therefore I can only say that price is the final judge so I will wait for a confirmation.


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Today AAPL will most likely "spark off" a bullish gap for NDX. The reaction to the expected initial buying pressure will have a critical significance for the SPX bearish set-up.

Undoubtedly the price structure of NDX pullback from the March top is corrective, which implies that price will resume the intermediate up trend once the EWP is completed.

NQ Globex is threatening the Bears. The after hour reaction to AAPL results has brought into play a potential bullish Double Bottom. It will only take an additional raise of less the 1% to lock in its Zig Zag down and open the door for at least a larger retracement of the down move from the March top.


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The EUR remains the key market to watch. The potential short-term reversal I was monitoring has been killed, hence despite being a corrective move, I cannot rule out further upside towards the next resistance located at 1.3274. But I still consider that price has a pending Zig Zag down that should challenge and even break the 1.2970 area.


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Lastly I keep saying that VIX will soon provide insights regarding the potential SPX bearish set-up by conforming or killing the Inverted H&S "project"


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Today is FOMC day. The equity market usually has a bullish bias when Ben speaks. But what matters is the eod print.

 


 

TheWaveTrading

Author: TheWaveTrading

TheWaveTrading

Contact: If you would like to contact the author, you can e-mail him at thewavetrading@gmail.com

The main objective of this project is to share my views on several markets and asset classes.

In the initial stage TWT website will be a free service.

My main focus will be the equity market with SPX being the leader but I will also follow US equity sectors, major European indices, fixed income, currencies and commodities markets.

My analysis is based upon traditional Technical Analysis, Elliot Wave guidelines and investor sentiment.

My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on the long and short side and mainly with leveraged ones (2 x & 3 x).

The advantage of ETF investments is that it allows getting involved in equity indices & sectors, currencies, fixed income, commodities etc.

Therefore the main purpose of TWT will be to establish investment strategies regardless if the market is in an up trend or in a down trend, leveraging the chosen scenario while managing the risk by establishing protective stop losses.

Hence I will always define the risk, I will try to let winners run the wave and I will cut the losses if my strategy is wrong.

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Thewavetrading.com nor the owner can not be held responsible for any loses occurred from the information provided within the website.

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Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/