Daily Analysis

By: TheWaveTrading | Tue, May 1, 2012
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My primary short-term scenario, which called for a correction, with price unfolding an ABC down and a potential target in the range 1340-1292, last Wednesday, was aborted by the huge gap up of AAPL and by the FED. I guess that Ben's message was clear: YOU HAVE TO BUY.

The month of April ended with a Doji, but I would not define it as a bearish candlestick, it looks more like the result of a rejection to go lower.

In addition to the FED, the sudden improvement of market breadth is the major reason to abandon, for the time being, bearish scenarios, as long as 1357 SPX holds.

On Sunday I mentioned that the considerable improvement of the Summation Index substantially increased the odds that SPX has not topped at 1422.

In addition we have:

Therefore if my long-term count is correct the wave (A) off the October 2011 lows is not over yet.


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If the up leg off the October 4 low has more business to the upside, then, to keep the EW analysis simple, it would mean that there is a pending wave (5) up that could match the length of the wave (1) = 108.40 points. This missing up leg should be accomplished in a multi week rally.


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Therefore as long as price does not breach the now critical support at 1358 I will put on quarantine a bearish bias, since the market correction could be over.

For the short term-time frame I believe that we have two options on the table:

The 5 -wave up leg has begun at the April 23 low. If this scenario is correct a wave (2) pull back should not breach the support MA cluster in the area of 1384-1386


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Take for granted that during May we will have to deal with a tough market.

There are still potential bearish EWP like an H&S project of SMH (Semiconductors etf):


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There are potential bullish EWP like the Triangle project of the DJT:


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There are weekly bullish engulfing candlestick like the one of the beaten up XLE, that are presaging at least a large rebound:


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In Europe extremely oversold markets could muster at least a large countertrend rebound. It stands out a potential bullish Inverted H&S in the French CAC 40:


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Today Europe is closed and we have the usually bullish first day of the month, therefore a bounce could be expected, although in my opinion price has not ended to consolidate last week's surge, and SPX could test the strength of the support cluster in the area of 1386 before deciding to lunch another impulsive up leg or spending more time in a sideways pattern.

The EUR strength without a bullish EWP remains a mystery to me. Therefore maybe something else might be cooking such as a potential larger countertrend EWP like the one in the chart below. I maintain that 1.3300 will most likely be the line in the sand between the bullish and bearish outcome.


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TheWaveTrading

Author: TheWaveTrading

TheWaveTrading

Contact: If you would like to contact the author, you can e-mail him at thewavetrading@gmail.com

The main objective of this project is to share my views on several markets and asset classes.

In the initial stage TWT website will be a free service.

My main focus will be the equity market with SPX being the leader but I will also follow US equity sectors, major European indices, fixed income, currencies and commodities markets.

My analysis is based upon traditional Technical Analysis, Elliot Wave guidelines and investor sentiment.

My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on the long and short side and mainly with leveraged ones (2 x & 3 x).

The advantage of ETF investments is that it allows getting involved in equity indices & sectors, currencies, fixed income, commodities etc.

Therefore the main purpose of TWT will be to establish investment strategies regardless if the market is in an up trend or in a down trend, leveraging the chosen scenario while managing the risk by establishing protective stop losses.

Hence I will always define the risk, I will try to let winners run the wave and I will cut the losses if my strategy is wrong.

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