The USD Index above 82.5 Is Deadly for Gold

By: Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA | Tue, May 29, 2012
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Based on the May 25th, 2012 Premium Update. Visit our archives for more gold & silver analysis.


 

The reasons for the gold's decline given in the press were a case of "round up the usual suspects."

There were concerns that China's economy is slowing and that European leaders may fail to stem the debt crisis. As expected, the new French President Francois Hollande challenged Germany's deficit-cutting stance. The euro hit a near two-year low against the dollar on Thursday after dismal German economic data suggested that no country in Europe is immune from crisis. The German data for May suggested the growth in Europe's economic engine that has so far helped the currency bloc dodge recession, may be starting to slow. Last week euro dropped sharply to $1.2515, its lowest level almost two years. All that boosted the dollar driving the greenback to the highest since Sept. 13, 2010, against a six-currency basket.

It is likely that the confidence in the U.S. dollar will turn out to be medium-term-lived. It won't be too long before the people will turn to the tried and true source of true wealth preservation--gold. Global economic turmoil is likely to continue over the next few years as we lurch from one economic crisis to the next and gold will be the beneficiary of this. We have no doubt for the long term. Those who invest in gold for long-term wealth preservation don't feel the bumps as much along the way.

However, things may turn out differently in the medium term (several weeks to several months). Let's begin today's technical part with the analysis of the US Dollar Index's very long-term chart (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.)

$USD (US Dollar Index - Cash Settle (EOD)) ICE

The index has rallied in spectacular fashion for the past few weeks and the move is clearly visible even from the very long-term perspective. Three resistance lines have been surpassed and the index is currently at its last one based on intra-day highs. Once broken, if the breakout above the 82.5 level is confirmed, much higher values will likely be in the cards. A move to 87-90 would not be surprising in this case.

Now, let's see how Euro did last week.

$XEU (Euro - Philadelphia) INDX

The euro decline is quite likely responsible for most of the positve upswing seen in the USD Index. If the breakdown is seen here - below the black neck line of the head-and-shoulders formation - if we see the index close below this line for three consecutive days, the Euro Index will likely move much lower and the dollar much higher.

In fact, we have already seen a breakdown in the euro based on weekly closing prices (red line) and this is being verified right now. Whether or not the breakdown is in is a bit unclear, but the situation in the Euro Index has surely deteriorated last week.

To finish off today's essay let's have a glance at our in-house developed tool that traces the intermarket dependencies.

Correlation Matrix

The Correlation Matrix is a tool which we have developed to analyze the impact of the currency markets and the general stock market upon the precious metals sector. Last week, the coefficients were classic as gold and stocks were positively correlated and gold was negatively correlated with the dollar.

A key factor this last week was how moves in the USD Index were immediately reflected in gold's price. It appears to be very important at this time to watch any move in the dollar and act accordingly. Based on the short-term trend, the USD Index seems likely to be headed above 82.5 even if it has to temporarily correct first (please note that there can be no such correction before the breakout). Lower precious metal prices will probably be seen following such a move.

Summing up, all-in-all, the medium-term picture appears quite bullish for the dollar and bearish for the euro. If the breakout above 82.5 in USD Index is confirmed, a more powerful rally in it and a decline in gold will likely follow.

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Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

 


 

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Author: Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief
Gold & Silver Investment & Trading Website - SunshineProfits.com

Przemyslaw Radomski

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA (PR) is a precious metals investor and analyst who takes advantage of the emotionality on the markets, and invites you to do the same.

His company, Sunshine Profits, publishes analytical software that anyone can use in order to get an accurate and unbiased view on the current situation.

Recognizing that predicting market behavior with 100% accuracy is a problem that may never be solved, PR has changed the world of trading and investing by enabling individuals to get easy access to the level of analysis that was once available only to institutions.

High quality and profitability of analytical tools available at www.SunshineProfits.com are results of time, thorough research and testing on PR's own capital.

PR believes that the greatest potential is currently in the precious metals sector. For that reason it is his main point of interest to help you make the most of that potential.

As a CFA charterholder, Przemyslaw Radomski shares the highest standards for professional excellence and ethics for the ultimate benefit of society.

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer: All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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