Markets Moving Markets

By: Gordon Long | Tue, Jun 5, 2012
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Several methods can be used to help determine at what level the market will stop.

  1. Multiple Methods: One technique is to combine multiple tools and methodologies. When several different techniques all seem to point to a specific area, it is wise to take notice.

  2. Multiple Markets: Another method would be use #1 on multiple markets, as well as the market you are trading. When you see several markets all appearing to be due for a technical event at the same time, again it is wise to take notice.

  3. Key Driver$: Additionally, you can add another level of confidence by fully understanding what markets are actually directly affecting the one you are trading. This is a little more tricky and requires much more diligence. This is where the pros spend their time.

Let's work through these, starting with what we know.


Multiple Methods:

There are a few technical tools like Fibonacci that we know can be uncanny in doing retracement predictions, as the market respects this natural growth and decay cycle. The issue however, as with many tools, is that you get several choices to choose from. The tools you use seldom give you one answer, but, like Fibonacci retracements, Gann levels, Bomar Bands, Moving Averages or Elliott Wave Principle, you get a series of levels of interest. The Divergence, 200 DMA, support zones suggest the following Elliot Wave targets a strong S&P 500 possibility: 1) 1254 where wave 5 is 0.618 of wave 1 to wave 3, 2) 1249 with a 50% October 2011 retracement and 3) 1230 where wave 5 is 1.618 of wave 1.

Chart 1
Larger Image


Multiple Markets:

In the case of the S&P we know the value of the $USD has an impact. In a general sense, as the dollar rises or falls, it takes more or less of them to equate the same value. The chart below of the $SPX and $USD show us this.

4SPX (S&P 500 Large Cap Index) INDX

The line graph is the $USD and the candlesticks are the $SPX. Highlight arrows have been added to illustrate the point. We know when the dollar falls, more are required to equal the same value and it is reflected in the rise of the market. We also know when the value of the dollar rises, it requires less of them to equal the same value and the markets fall. This tells us we should be looking to the $USD and what it is doing. When it reaches technical areas and turns (or not) at them, you can expect the $SPX to do the same.

We also know that the $USD is also influenced by other markets. With a little investigation we will discover that presently it looks like it is the EURO/JPY that is the Driver$ for the $USD. There are a number of reasons for this, the Japanese Yen Carry Trade being but one example. Economic events in Europe right now are having an impact on the $EURO and these too influence the EURO/YEN. Through the EURO/YEN we are able to gauge the Economic effects of numerous events taking place at the same time. In turn, as shown in the chart below, the EURO/YEN influences or Drive$ the $USD.

EURO/YEN influences or Drive$ the $USD

$USD superimposed on to the EURO/JPY

This chart is the $USD superimposed on to the EURO/JPY. Each are own their own scale, but the dates line up and we can see the highlighted arrows again illustrating the point. Movement in the EURO/JPY causes an inverse reaction in the $USD.

Note the technical analysis that has been marked up. This analysis was done on the EURO/JPY. You can see the green highlighted box, marking a technically significant area. There are numerous reasons why it is significant, not the least of which is that it is back to the previous level low from Dec 2011. If you note the shape of the EURO/JPY from the Dec 2011 low, it is a near perfect triangle and gives us another reason - Gann, squaring of price and time - to consider this level technically significant. Indeed you can see that the market appears, at this time, to have reacted to this level. It did "spike" through it, however it also looks to have found support, as the pullback/shape of the candlestick indicates.

As mentioned, numerous factors influence the EURO/JPY at this time. Events in Europe, the unwinding carry-trade, and also Commodities, are all reflected in to the pricing of the EURO/JPY. We showed that this in turn impacts the $USD, which influences the $SPX.

Let's consider then, a chart of the EURO/JPY and the $SPX.

chart of the EURO/JPY and the $SPX
Larger Image

Again, the scales are not the same, however the dates are in line, and we can see the direct relationship between the EURO/JPY and the $SPX. Keeping an eye then, on the technical indications from the EURO/JPY would be important. While we could draw on numerous significant technical studies on the $SPX (channels, retracements etc.) unless we see the EURO/JPY having technical levels of its own, that line up with the $SPX levels, the technical analysis you have done on the $SPX alone will not hold or give a reaction as expected. At this point in time, the $SPX is really reacting to technical indications from the EURO/JPY.

We will have to see in the coming week how the EURO/JPY reacts to our current technical level. There is reason to expect a pullback or bounce at this point (technically) and if it does occur, we should also see a reversal in the $SPX market as well.

Also on the chart is a bottom channel that runs just under our current EURO/JPY level. This would be the next likely place to expect a bounce or pullback, should our current levels break.

Should the current levels on the EURO/JPY break, then we could also expect to see more down in the $SPX market.


Key Driver$

The bond market is the 800 pound gorilla compared to the equity markets and when it breaks 120 year yield levels it must additionally be carefully considered. Overlaying the technical developments in this market rounds out our three point approach.

The cornerstone of our debt crisis is the yields and spreads on the debt. This gets very complex when you start considering global currency adjustments however sometimes the right perspective is all that is required.

iShares 20 Yr T Bond Fund
Larger Image - The markets are Nearing a Short to Intermediate Term Support level.

Fear

Market fear is in the market and any 'good news' from the central bankers and the market will react. The upside to downside risk has become unbalanced and will soon be adjusted.

As was stated at the start, knowing the technical Trigger$ from various markets can help determine when the market you are trading will react. If you study several markets, and not just your own, you quickly notice that many will come to technical " heads" at the same time, giving you some indication to pay attention.

When you understand what market(s) directly affect the one you are trading, you can again increase your knowledge and overall confidence as a trader and smart investor.

Uninformed and nervous investors make bad decisions.

 


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Gordon Long

Author: Gordon Long

Gordon T. Long
Publisher - LONGWave

Gordon T. Long

Gordon T. Long has been publically offering his financial and economic writing since 2010, following a career internationally in technology, senior management & investment finance. He brings a unique perspective to macroeconomic analysis because of his broad background, which is not typically found or available to the public.

Mr. Long was a senior group executive with IBM and Motorola for over 20 years. Earlier in his career he was involved in Sales, Marketing & Service of computing and network communications solutions across an extensive array of industries. He subsequently held senior positions, which included: VP & General Manager, Four Phase (Canada); Vice President Operations, Motorola (MISL - Canada); Vice President Engineering & Officer, Motorola (Codex - USA).

After a career with Fortune 500 corporations, he became a senior officer of Cambex, a highly successful high tech start-up and public company (Nasdaq: CBEX), where he spearheaded global expansion as Executive VP & General Manager.

In 1995, he founded the LCM Groupe in Paris, France to specialize in the rapidly emerging Internet Venture Capital and Private Equity industry. A focus in the technology research field of Chaos Theory and Mandelbrot Generators lead in the early 2000's to the development of advanced Technical Analysis and Market Analytics platforms. The LCM Groupe is a recognized source for the most advanced technical analysis techniques employed in market trading pattern recognition.

Mr. Long presently resides in Boston, Massachusetts, continuing the expansion of the LCM Groupe's International Private Equity opportunities in addition to their core financial market trading platforms expertise. GordonTLong.com is a wholly owned operating unit of the LCM Groupe.

Gordon T. Long is a graduate Engineer, University of Waterloo (Canada) in Thermodynamics-Fluid Mechanics (Aerodynamics). On graduation from an intensive 5 year specialized Co-operative Engineering program he pursued graduate business studies at the prestigious Ivy Business School, University of Western Ontario (Canada) on a Northern & Central Gas Corporation Scholarship. He was subsequently selected to attend advanced one year training with the IBM Corporation in New York prior to starting his career with IBM.

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

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