Buying Opportunity or Full-Blown Bear Market?

By: Chris Ciovacco | Tue, Jun 12, 2012
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The market is sapping the strength of investors. Monday's short-lived euphoria following the weekend bailout for Spanish banks will cause many bulls to understandably lose focus. Similarly, the bears were able to breathe a sigh of relief following a Monday morning scare in the futures market.

This is not the time for the bears to become complacent or the bulls to become disinterested. If the S&P 500 revisits the recent low near 1,266, we believe it will possibly spark one of two binary outcomes:

  1. A sharp, possibly bailout/central bank-induced rally, or
  2. Entry into a full-blown bear market with significantly lower prices

Numerous factors, including trendlines, Fibonacci retracement levels, and DeMark exhaustion counts, point to the 1,248 to 1,278 range as being very significant relative to investment outcomes over the next three-to-six months. It is prudent to have both "sharp reversal" and "waterfall decline" contingency plans polished and ready to go.

There is no question we are in a deflationary period for asset prices. The ratio of U.S. Treasuries (TLT) to gold (GLD) clearly shows a shift from inflationary expectations to deflationary expectations. The market currently believes the mountains of debt round the globe cannot be overcome by the central bankers' printing presses.

Ratio of "Deflation to Inflation" TLT:GLD

We noted Monday morning that despite the rosy tone in the pre-market S&P 500 futures, bond investors were beginning to grasp you cannot solve a debt crisis by continually issuing more debt and handing out bailout loans. The chart below shows the yield on a Spanish ten-year bond. Yields rise when demand for Spanish bonds falls.

Spanish bond yields are hovering at very problematic levels

The charts above tell us unless the market sees some type of significant move from European policymakers or another round of money printing from either the European Central Bank (ECB) or Fed, the stock market is going lower. The situation is understood by a handful of policymakers, most notably within the central banks. Thus, we should expect another bailout or form of market intervention with the next two weeks.

The chart below shows simple support and resistance areas that may impact stock prices in the coming weeks. The S&P 500 has pockets of potential support near 1,270 and 1,250. If stocks cannot find support from buyers near 1,250, a relatively rapid move below 1,200 could be in the cards. We plan to show some patience above 1,250; below that level, a more defensive posture will be warranted.

$SPX (S&P 500 Large Cap Index) INDX

The chart that follows looks complex, but the concepts are simple. The thin horizontal blue lines highlight Fibonacci retracement levels based on the bullish move from the October 2011 low to the April 2012 high. From an investor's perspective, these levels represent areas of possible support. The chart below is based on intraday highs and lows. The levels to watch are 1,289, 1,248, and 1,207. If you use closing prices, the levels are 1,296, 1,259, and 1,221.

Demark indicators are based on market exhaustion, where the last group of sellers finally throws in the towel. You can understand from a psychological standpoint how investors could be ready to give up after European policymakers' latest band-aid "solution" was followed by additional bleeding in the Spanish and Italian bond markets. To hit exhaustion counts in Demark speak, the S&P 500 would have to move back below 1,278. DeMark counts are covered at the 1:02 mark in this June 10 video. DeMark indicators are proprietary tools from Market Studies, LLC.

Bond yields are possibly foreshadowing another round of market intervention from central banks. Support, retracements, and DeMark counts all point to the range between 1,248 and 1,278 as being important for the longer-term bullish case.

While keeping a watchful eye on central banks, we will continue to monitor the markets and developments in Europe. We remain open to "buying low", but also respect the bearish case that could produce significantly lower deflationary lows in stocks.

 


 

Chris Ciovacco

Author: Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco
Ciovacco Capital Management

Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at www.ciovaccocapital.com.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors and tax advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE.

Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC is an independent money management firm based in Atlanta, Georgia. CCM helps individual investors and businesses, large & small; achieve improved investment results via research and globally diversified investment portfolios. Since we are a fee-based firm, our only objective is to help you protect and grow your assets. Our long-term, theme-oriented, buy-and-hold approach allows for portfolio rebalancing from time to time to adjust to new opportunities or changing market conditions.

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