Central Banks Help Break Downtrend

By: Chris Ciovacco | Sun, Jun 17, 2012
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On Thursday, a G20 representative told Reuters central banks stand ready to assist should the markets deteriorate next week. That central bank news coupled with Wall Street's read that the Greek election will be market-favorable was enough to push numerous markets to important new highs. Flipping through our chart book late today we saw mostly bullish evidence. A few examples are shown below.

Last Saturday, we presented a series of charts similar to the one below. The moving averages finished the current week with positive slopes, which is a good sign for the short-term trend.


We have shown the pink trendline below for several weeks. The All-World Index ex-U.S. (VEU) closed back above the trendline on Friday, which leans bullish. The slope of the 20-day moving average (blue line) also ticked up in a bullish manner. Notice how the slope of the 20-day can assist in identifying a short-term trend change. All things being equal, if you are looking to buy, you prefer to see a positive slope on the 20-day.


An inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is a potentially bullish set-up. Many markets, including the S&P 500 and VEU, currently have a form of the pattern. On Friday, VEU pushed above the dotted neckline. The probable target for the move is toward 41.50. Notice a bullish move to that level would still keep the longer-term downtrend in place, which means even if stocks rally further, we need to keep a close eye on things.


The shorter-term downward-sloping trendline for VEU was recently broken near point A below, which is the first step required for a basic trend change. A higher low was made above point B, followed by a higher high to the right of point C. The higher high made Friday completes a change in trend.


If time permits, we will try to post a video sometime this weekend expanding on these and other concepts. Anything can happen next week post elections in Greece, but there is no question the last two Fridays have favored the bulls. If we pay attention to price, we will not go too far wrong.



Chris Ciovacco

Author: Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco
Ciovacco Capital Management

Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at www.ciovaccocapital.com.

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