Is Oil Overvalued? Or Are We Just Seeing Temporary Weakness in the Price of Oil. The Economic Fallout

By: Larry Cyna | Mon, Jul 2, 2012
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Canadian Oil Sands Prices as an Indicator

In recent months there has been an anomaly between world oil prices and the price of oil coming out of the Canadian Oil Sands. Because of transportation issues Canadian heavy oil has been receiving less value than the world price of oil. They say that this is a temporary anomaly and perhaps it is so. But this differential is but an indication of weakness in the price of oil everywhere.

If demand for crude oil were growing rather than moderating, the differential for Canadian Oil Sands crude would be far less.


The Price of Oil Has Weakened Recently

However the price of oil everywhere in North America continues weakening - just a bit each week. From February 2012 until now, there has been a gradual but consistent weakening in price. Perhaps that hasn't translated into cheaper gas at the pumps yet, but any chart will show a decline in the price of crude oil. This price weakening is perhaps a result of economic weakness, or more oil flowing from Iraq, or perhaps demand weakness, or seasonality. But however you wish to interpret this, oil is reaching new recent lows.


Oil is Trading at the Lowest Price of the Last Eighteen Months

Some traders see the weakness as a leading economic indicator, and as oil prices hit their lowest levels in over a year and a half, it's a sign that global growth is facing some serious headwinds. With the fiscal cliff in the USA looming as a result of budgets constraints hitting the USA in the New Year, and persistent European troubles that never seem to go away, the energy markets seem to be confirming an inevitable economic downturn.

Yet, others see the decrease in the price of oil as a very positive sign.


A Longer Term View on the Price of Oil and the Effects

We wrote a few months ago, on the long term future price of oil. To summarize our comments, there is a revolution coming in terms of energy availability in North America.

The new Fracking methods, combined with the enormous new fields of natural gas being discovered in which for the first time, the gas is recoverable, have made gas very plentiful in North America. The "normal" pricing curve has become a thing of the past. We still have 'experts' calling for the recovery in the price of natural gas (read price increase) but the reality is that the price of gas has a new and lower trading range - at a price that makes the use of natural gas very economical.

Add to this the fact that there are now more oil reserves in North America than there were at the height before the Peak Oil Theory came into vogue. This does not include the ever expanding production coming from the Canadian Oil Sands.

One thing is for certain. There are massive changes coming that will affect the USA position in the world, the value of the Canadian dollar, efficiency and productivity in North America. If the price of crude oil continues to weaken, energy prices will continue to moderate, resulting in lower costs in North America and that will result in higher productivity in North America. This will make the USA much more competitive in manufacturing.

If the export of crude from the Canadian Oil Sands is at a lower price, less export dollars will be flowing back to Canada, resulting in a weaker Canadian dollar, and an increase in productivity in Canada when costs are compared to other countries. This will also mean a lowering of living standards somewhat. The changes will be significant.

The supply side of the equation of crude oil supply and demand, will be strengthening even more. The following commentary about unexpected new sources of supply coming on stream, add further to the supply side of the equation, and will further weaken prices.


The Vanishing North - The Melting of the Arctic

In the June 16, 2012 edition of "The Economist", is a very interesting article which I urge readers to look at.


Positive Economic Effects of the Disappearance of the Arctic Ice

Some comments included in that article are pertinent to this discussion. I will quote some here - "Arctic governments are starting to see a bonanza in the melt. The Arctic is stocked with minerals......hitherto largely inaccessible, including an estimated 30% of undiscovered reserves of natural gas and 13% of undiscovered oil reserves."

How these so-called experts can quote percentages on "undiscovered deposits" is beyond me, but that is a subject for another day. Further quote - " .... oil companies are flocking north...".


The Price of Energy is About to Fall

What we have here is a long term trend that looks to change the economics of the world.

If you think that you are secure in your investments in the high dividend paying former gas and oil trusts, think about the long term effects of the dramatic increase in the supply of energy and the expected continuing drop in the cost of that energy (oil).


One Thing is Certain - The Future is Uncertain

In a short blog like this, it is not possible to examine the effects of this coming change, but let me at least mention some of the topics.

Is production of oil from the Canadian Oil Sands too expensive to compete in the new paradigm?

Is productivity in the US about to improve radically because of the lower cost of energy?

Is the diminishing flow of money to the Sheiks of the Middle East going to change the value of the US$?

Will the focus of the US military cease being on overseas oil supplies?

And many more similar questions.

The real issue, is the timing of these coming changes.

 


 

Larry Cyna

Author: Larry Cyna

Lawrence J. Cyna, CA
www.cymorfund.com

Larry Cyna

Larry Cyna, CA, is CEO and Portfolio Advisor to Cymorfund, a boutique hedge fund. He expresses his insights several times a week on his blog www.cymorfund.com and offers a free newsletter which can be subscribed to here.

Mr. Cyna is an accomplished investor in the Canadian public markets for over 20 years, and has managed significant portfolios. He is a financing specialist for private and public companies, and has expertise in real estate and debt obligations. He has assisted private companies accessing the public markets, has been a founding director of public companies and is a strategic consultant to selected clientele.

He is and has been a director, a senior officer and on the Advisory Board of a number of TSX and TSXV public companies in the mining, resource, technology and telecommunications sectors, and the Founding Director of two CPC's with qualifying transactions in mining and minerals. He was an honorary director of the Rotman School of Management MBA IMC program, has completed the Canadian Securities Institute Canadian Securities Course & Institute Conduct and Practices Handbook Course, was a former Manager under contract to an Investment Manager at BMO Nesbitt Burns, a roster mediator under the Ontario Mandatory Mediation Program, Toronto, a member of the Institute of Corporate Directors of Ontario, a member of the Upper Canada Dispute Resolution Group, and the Ontario Bar Association, Alternate Dispute Resolution section.

He obtained his designation as a Chartered Accountant in Ontario in 1971 and was the recipient of the Founder's Prize for academic achievement together with a cash reward. He became a CPA in the State of Illinois, USA in 1999 under IQEX with a grade of 92%. He is a Member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Ontario and the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants.

He holds certificates in Advanced ADR & in Civil Justice in Ontario, Faculty of Law, University of Windsor, certificate in Dispute Resolution from the Ontario Institute of Chartered Accountants. Previous accomplishments are Manager of Cymor Risk Consultants LP specializing in Risk Management Assessment; CEO of Cyna & Associates specializing in mediation and ADR; Founder & Senior Partner of Cyna & Co, Chartered Accountants, a fully licensed and accredited public accountancy firm with international affiliations; and was a partner in a large public accountancy firm.

Mr. Cyna is well known in the Canadian Investing community. He attends presentations given by public companies to the industry on a daily basis.. These presentations are intended by the various hosting companies to present their inside story for the purpose of attracting funding, or of making parties more interested in acquiring shares of those companies. Being in constant communication in this manner keeps Mr. Cyna deeply involved in the current market and leads to numerous investment opportunities.

Mr. Cyna is currently a Director of Argentum Silver Corporation and Telehop Communications Inc.

Copyright © 2012-2013 Lawrence J. Cyna

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Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/