Oil: Update Long Term EWP
I maintain the scenario that I posted on September 8 2011, which calls for price unfolding off the January 2008 lows a Double Zig Zag wave (B).
This is the chart I had posted with the DZZ option:
This idea implies that price will revisit the July 2008 top maybe shaping a large Flat.
If Price is unfolding a Double Zig Zag then on May 2011 price established the wave (W).
Now we need a wave (X), which has to be the result of a corrective EWP.
Since last month price did not breach the October 2011 low at 74.95, the internal structure of the pullback off the May 2011 peak is establishing lower highs / higher lows, which could mean that price may be unfolding a Triangle.
If price is now involved in unfolding the wave (D) of the Triangle project then price should reach at least the range of the 20 w MA = 96.90 / 0.618 retracement = 97.89
If price does not reach the 20 w MA and instead it stalls and reverse in the area of the 0.5 retracement then maybe we could have an Ending Diagonal wave (C) in progress, in which case the wave (X) will be established once the ED is completed.