I have been updating the SPX long-term count in the weekly posts, but before
I leave for the summer holidays I wanted to review my preferred scenario.
Very long-term trend is sideways/down: From the 2000 Top price
is unfolding a Double Zig Zag, therefore now price is involved in completing
the wave (X). Once the wave (X) is in place price will begin to unfold
the second Zig Zag down towards the 2009 lows.
Long-term trend is up: From the November 2008 low price is unfolding
the wave (X) within a Double Zig Zag that is not completed yet. If this
EWP plays out then off the October 2011 lows price has to unfold the last
Zig Zag (ABC) up.
Therefore now price should be involved in unfolding the wave (B), which should
not breach the rising trend line support in force from the March 2009 low.
Hence the area of 1220 (April 2010 top) and where we also have the 100 d MA
is the critical support zone.
Once the wave (B) is in place, price will begin the last impulsive/ending
diagonal wave (C) up that is expected to at least retest the 2000 / 2007 highs.
The pending wave (C) down if it bottoms in the mentioned range 1248 -1207
with a positive divergence of the Summation Index will strengthen the scenario
that SPX will be able to carry out the "last" wave (C) up during the last
quarter 2012.
Contact: If you would like to contact the author, you can e-mail him
at thewavetrading@gmail.com
The main objective of this project is to share my views on several markets
and asset classes.
In the initial stage TWT website will be a free service.
My main focus will be the equity market with SPX being the leader but I will
also follow US equity sectors, major European indices, fixed income, currencies
and commodities markets.
My analysis is based upon traditional Technical Analysis, Elliot Wave guidelines
and investor sentiment.
My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular
asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on the long and
short side and mainly with leveraged ones (2 x & 3 x).
The advantage of ETF investments is that it allows getting involved in equity
indices & sectors, currencies, fixed income, commodities etc.
Therefore the main purpose of TWT will be to establish investment strategies
regardless if the market is in an up trend or in a down trend, leveraging
the chosen scenario while managing the risk by establishing protective stop
losses.
Hence I will always define the risk, I will try to let winners run the wave
and I will cut the losses if my strategy is wrong.
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