SPX Update: Long Term Count

By: TheWaveTrading | Mon, Jul 9, 2012
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I have been updating the SPX long-term count in the weekly posts, but before I leave for the summer holidays I wanted to review my preferred scenario.

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Therefore now price should be involved in unfolding the wave (B), which should not breach the rising trend line support in force from the March 2009 low. Hence the area of 1220 (April 2010 top) and where we also have the 100 d MA is the critical support zone.

Once the wave (B) is in place, price will begin the last impulsive/ending diagonal wave (C) up that is expected to at least retest the 2000 / 2007 highs.

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Below in the weekly SPX chart I have the detailed count of the assumed wave (X) in progress.

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Since the internal structure of the rebound off the June 4 low is corrective we already know that:

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The pending wave (C) down if it bottoms in the mentioned range 1248 -1207 with a positive divergence of the Summation Index will strengthen the scenario that SPX will be able to carry out the "last" wave (C) up during the last quarter 2012.

NYSE Summation Index




Author: TheWaveTrading


Contact: If you would like to contact the author, you can e-mail him at thewavetrading@gmail.com

The main objective of this project is to share my views on several markets and asset classes.

In the initial stage TWT website will be a free service.

My main focus will be the equity market with SPX being the leader but I will also follow US equity sectors, major European indices, fixed income, currencies and commodities markets.

My analysis is based upon traditional Technical Analysis, Elliot Wave guidelines and investor sentiment.

My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on the long and short side and mainly with leveraged ones (2 x & 3 x).

The advantage of ETF investments is that it allows getting involved in equity indices & sectors, currencies, fixed income, commodities etc.

Therefore the main purpose of TWT will be to establish investment strategies regardless if the market is in an up trend or in a down trend, leveraging the chosen scenario while managing the risk by establishing protective stop losses.

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Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/