Markets Pointing Toward Rally In Risk

By: Chris Ciovacco | Fri, Jul 13, 2012
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John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, delivered a risk-friendly speech in Portland, Oregon on Thursday. From the Wall Street Journal:

"This is a period when extraordinary vigilance is demanded," Mr. Williams said. "We stand ready to do what is necessary to attain our goals of maximum employment and price stability," the central banker said. Should the Fed need to do more, "the most effective tool would be additional purchases of longer-maturity securities, including agency mortgage-backed securities."

As the odds increase of getting at least a QE hint from the Fed in a few weeks, the recent six day sell-off has featured waning downside momentum and numerous bullish divergences on 60-minute charts. We have discussed divergences between MACD and price many times in the past. Along with MACD, On Balance Volume (OBV), and the Accumulation/Distribution indicators have also been flashing "a rally may be coming" signals on numerous ETF charts. The text below, from stockcharts.com, describes how OBV can assist investors:

On Balance Volume (OBV) measures buying and selling pressure as a cumulative indicator that adds volume on up days and subtracts volume on down days. Chartists can look for divergences between OBV and price to predict price movements.

Accumulation/Distribution can be used in a similar manner:

The Accumulation Distribution (Accum/Dist) Line is a volume-based indicator designed to measure the cumulative flow of money into and out of a security. Chartists can use this indicator to affirm a security's underlying trend or anticipate reversals when the indicator diverges from the security price.

If divergences between price and an indicator can be used to "anticipate reversals", it may be a good time to start the anticipation process. Clear bullish divergences between the three indicators and price can be seen by comparing the slopes of lines A, B, C, and D on the 60-minute S&P 500 chart below.

$SPX (S&P 500 Large Cap Index) INDX

The divergences shown here are shorter-term in nature. They compliment longer-term bullish developments outlined in a July 8 video.

Since quantitative easing injects freshly printed dollars into the global financial system, investors tend to migrate toward inflation-protection assets before and during a round of QE. The short-term divergences in silver (SLV), copper (JJC), mining stocks (XME), and oil service companies (OIH) align with a market that may be preparing for Fed action.

SLV (iShares Silver Trust) NYSE

JJC (iPath DJ-UBS Copper) NYSE

XME (SPDR S&P Metals) NYSE

OIH (Market Vectors Oil Services) NYSE

With the situation in Europe continuing to drag on and on, the markets may get more intervention from the European Central Bank (ECB). From Reuters:

European Central Bank policymakers held out the possibility on Thursday of taking further measures to boost the flagging euro zone economy after a cut in their deposit rate to zero showed no sign of jolting banks into lending out more money. Faced with fading inflation pressures and no sign banks are about to funnel more money to business to help the stagnating economy, ECB policymakers signaled they could act again. "Should the situation deteriorate, there is no article of faith preventing us from going below 0.75 percent," said ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot.

The EAFE ETF (EFA) has exposure to France, Germany, and Spain. Thus, it is not surprising EFA has short-term divergences, keeping a bullish reversal on the table.

EFA (iShares MSCI EAFE) NYSE

France is saying "don't rule out a rally attempt".

EWQ (France iShares) NYSE

Back in the United States, large-cap (IWV) and large-cap value stocks (IWD) are also hinting at the possibility of an imminent rally attempt in risk assets.

IWV (Russell 3000 iShares) NYSE

IWD (Russell 1000 Value iShares) NYSE

If you are expecting a possible rally in stocks and commodities, it is helpful to see if safe haven assets are flashing possible reversal signals as well. As shown below, Treasuries (TLT) and the short S&P 500 ETF (SH) are exhibiting negative or bearish divergences.

TLT (iShs T-Bnd 20+y) NYSE

Many traders do not want to be short when intervention and press conference risk are so high. Central banks can change the rules at any time, including Sunday.

SH (PS Short S&P 500) NYSE

As we have stated in the past, divergences alone are not a reason to buy anything. Divergences are "pay attention" and "keep an open mind" signals. When they are present, it is also easier to hold onto your long positions. Divergences can be removed from a chart based on future price action, but as long as they remain, the bulls probably have more hope than most believe. Headline-driven markets can do anything at anytime, including ignore every divergence presented here. Therefore, it is prudent to understand where long-term support resides. The chart of the NYSE Composite Index below could come in handy should the recent bearish trends accelerate.

$NYS (NYSE Composite Index) INDX

When signals appear in numerous markets and across different asset classes, they tend to be more meaningful. There are too many ETFs with similar set-ups to show them all, but below is a sampling for your viewing pleasure.

VTI (Vanguard Total Mkt) NYSE

DIA (SPDR DJI) NYSE

DVY (iShares DJ Sict Div) NYSE

EPI (WisdomTree Indea) NYSE

SCZ (iShares MSCI EAFE SC) NYSE

FXI (iShrs FTSE China 25) NYSE

IGE (Nat Res iSh S&P GSSI) NYSE

XOP (SPDR S&P Oil&Gas Exp) NYSE

 


 

Chris Ciovacco

Author: Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco
Ciovacco Capital Management

Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at www.ciovaccocapital.com.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors and tax advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE.

Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC is an independent money management firm based in Atlanta, Georgia. CCM helps individual investors and businesses, large & small; achieve improved investment results via research and globally diversified investment portfolios. Since we are a fee-based firm, our only objective is to help you protect and grow your assets. Our long-term, theme-oriented, buy-and-hold approach allows for portfolio rebalancing from time to time to adjust to new opportunities or changing market conditions.

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