Investing Wisely - Forecasts / Confirmations = Profitable Results!

By: Steve Bauer | Fri, Jul 13, 2012
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It is Really Quite Simple

It begins with Accurate Forecasting and Analytic Procedures, then it requires Well Honed Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion Conformations, and it ends with Profitable Results. (F / C = PR)

Professors, F / C = PR - - - Opinion of: Google (GOOG):

My near-term Forecast is that Google is has been coming down since March just after I put out an initial bearish warnings to my clients. The foreseeable appreciation picture for Google is not nearly as bright as most financial analysts are publishing. This past year has been extraordinary for both Google and other Internet Services Companies and that is being very nice. So far the price per share is down about 10% and there is much more down-side on its way.

Notes: a forecast is just that, an opinion based on the fundamental - valuation, technical charts and consensus opinion on data as well as the information and data that is available at the time of publishing the article. The single factor that can upset a very good forecast is the News. That is why it is important to stay with the facts and real data and not be influenced by outside and temporal flows of media information. Each week I intend on featuring a new and well-known company for your consideration. I am sorry that cannot possible keep a weekly update for you. If you would like my most current thoughts on this or another company, please contact me by Email. (Serious investors only - Please!)

Confirmations: "Confirmations" are a review of my fundamental valuations and technical analytics. They are only available at the time of making investment decisions to take bullish or bearish positions.

Profitable Results: Profitable results, like most things in life, come after doing a superior job. A superior job comes from experience, dedication and hard work.

The Professors - Report Card on: Google (GOOG)

Company
Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
Report Card -
Grade & Direction:

(0 - 100 / A - F) -- Ascending
- Status Quo - Descending
Google (GOOG) Poor -- My Valuation for Google is quite negative. The longer-term down-side is over 20%. Earnings growth is descending for the next three years. Poor -- My Technical Analytics is very negative. I would recommend selling on what may be a near-term bounce-rally. Good -- Consensus is always overly optimistic. It is a poor guide to investing wisely. 70 / C - -- Descending

My weighted Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion ratings range from Excellent to Very Poor. Grades below 90 / A are not current (never are) candidates for buying. Grades above 60 / F are not current (never are) candidates for short selling. Information and data are ever changing, so be alert. Every companies "Grade" can from a neutral grade (60 to 90 / D to B) to a buy (greater than 90) or short sale (less than 60) in a very short time.

The twenty-year chart is offered to give you a perspective. "Perspective" is yet another tool for making money that is seldom employed.

My article here in SafeHaven.com on "My Rotation Model" supports the above notes. (click here).

Google 2-Year Chart

Do not buy or short Google, without talking with a seasoned financial analyst or perhaps visiting with me via Email.

I suggest that you to take a long look at this 20-year chart. Having a longer-term perspective of a possible future investment will always give you a more consistent bottom line. Comparing Google with the SPDR, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) tells a very compelling and profitable story. If you would like my guidance as to why I suggest that this chart is so important, just let me know.

Google versus S&P500
Larger Image


I am the guy who wrote the 38 week course on Investment Basics. See the link on the right column (side-bar) of SafeHaven.com - Home Page.


General Market - - Where are We and Where are we Going?

About a 8 weeks ago I announced, here in SafeHaven.com that the Bears have taken charge of the marketplace. I also said that there is still much downside to witness before a resumption of any meaningful rally.

The rally that commenced about three weeks ago is or perhaps has come to an end. This past week was another news-stimulated week. News alone is not enough to sustain a further bullish move. I suggest you spend some time in my blog this Sunday.

These forecasts have been - right on the button - if you are a follower of my blog for quite some time.

My fundamentals are over-valued. My technicals are over-bought. My consensus opinions are much too bullish. The economies of the world are in much more peril than is being reported by the media.

With the above statement having been my exact posting now for many weeks, the marketplace is going to react. That is going to continue to cause a great deal of hurt.

Therefore, I am bearish on the general market, the economy, and believe holding long positions for the foreseeable future is not WISE!

The U.S. is on the brink of following Great Britain into a recession.

I will keep you posted ...


You may want to follow my bi-weekly blog - Update and Commentary on Wednesdays and Sundays. Investors in over 54 countries around the world follow my blog. Try it - it is as accurate as you will find in any financial blog:
My Blog: http://twitter.com/InvestRotation

So if my Forecasts are "Accurate" and my "Conformations" are working (and they are) then the above formula will yield "Profitable Results."


My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com
Thanks for permitting me to share my "stuff."
I would appreciate your Telling a Friend or Two about my postings here in SafeHaven.com. It is by far the best financial blog on the web.


Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

 


 

Steve Bauer

Author: Steve Bauer

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Steve Bauer

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.

Dr. Bauer also writes for SeekingAlpha.com. His articles can be viewed at: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer?source=search_general&s=steven-bauer

He owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

Professionally he is a financial analyst and private asset manager / consultant / mentor.

Steve can be reached at senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2010-2013 Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

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