Investing Wisely - Microsoft: Forecasts / Confirmations = Profitable Results!

By: Steve Bauer | Sat, Jul 28, 2012
Print Email

It is Really Quite Simple

It begins with Accurate Forecasting and Analytic Procedures, then it requires Well Honed Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion Conformations, and it ends with Profitable Results. (F / C = PR)

Professors, F / C = PR - - - Opinion of: Microsoft (MSFT):

My most recent articles have been posted here in SafeHaven.com are: AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GOOG, INTC, MSFT and AT&T. You might want to re-read these articles for the accuracy of my forecasts of these companies. The above (F / C = PR) is as accurate and profitable formula as anything you will find in the financial blogs you may be reading.

My near-term Forecast is that Microsoft is has been coming down since early March just after I put out an initial bearish warnings to my clients and wrote a definitive article in another financial blog. The foreseeable appreciation picture for Microsoft is not nearly as bright as most financial analysts are publishing. Longer term valuation forecasts are not amongst the strongest for the Software industry. When the General Market is in trouble (and it IS in trouble) companies like MSFT will follow suit. This being true, Microsoft will definitely continue to participate in this pull back. This past year has been extraordinary for both Microsoft and other Software Companies and that is being very profitable to own. Most of the companies I feature pay a dividend. (Please read my recent article for Seniors regarding doubling your monthly income). Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end. Many Dow Companies and others are hurting a hurt that is just plain unacceptable asset management. My fundamental valuation for MSFT is a minus 15+%.

Notes: A snapshot of - - How I Get My Accuracy, Results and Profits ...

It all starts with what I call Comparative Analytics. There are several thousand U.S. Companies in the New York and Nasdaq markets. Each Company is a component of a Sector as well as an Industry Group. There are about 12 - 15 Sectors and well over 200 Industry Groups.

I spend a lot of my time breaking all of these components down to a manageable size. My analytic work, for doing this, uses my unique valuation and time tested technical indicator methodology. This process offers clear guidance as to both the direction of the Marketplace as well as for the near to short-term direction of each sector, industry group and company.

All this work is continuously in place to review any Company or ETF. It is also rather easy to identify the Companies and ETFs that have the highest probability of meaningfully contributing to (ascending) after a clear Bullish Inflection point for the next ensuing rally. This works the same within a Bearish Inflection Point. Again, it is easy to identify the Companies and ETFs (Inverse) that have the highest probability of (descending) in a Bearish environment.

That is how Investing Wisely works for me as well as for my clients! In over 50 years I have never found that investors or financial analysts / asset managers understand and apply this basic and on-going process of consistently making money in the stock market.

A Forecast is just that, an opinion based on the fundamental - valuation, technical charts and consensus opinion on data as well as the information and data that is available at the time of publishing this article. The single factor that can upset a very good forecast is the News. That is why it is important to stay with the facts and real data and not be influenced by outside and temporal flows of media mis-guided information. You may have already noted that each week I feature a new and well-known company for your consideration. I am sorry that cannot possible keep a weekly update for you.

If you would like my most current thoughts on this or another company, please contact me by Email. (Serious investors only - Please!)

Confirmations: "Confirmations" are a review of my fundamental valuations and technical analytics. They are only available at the time of making investment decisions to take bullish or bearish positions.

Profitable Results: Profitable results, like most things in life, come after doing a superior job. A superior job comes from experience, dedication and hard work.

The Professors - Report Card on: Microsoft (MSFT)

Company
Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
Report Card -
Grade & Direction:

(0 - 100 / A - F) -- Ascending
- Status Quo - Descending
Microsoft (MSFT) Good --My Valuation for Microsoft is quite negative. The longer-term down-side is over 15+%. Earnings growth is descending for the next three years. Poor -- My Technical Analytics is very negative. I would recommend selling on what may be a near-term bounce-rally. Good -- Consensus is always overly optimistic. It is a poor guide to investing wisely. 74 / C - -- Descending

My weighted Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion ratings range from Excellent to Very Poor. Grades below 90 / A are not current (never are) candidates for buying. Grades above 60 / F are not current (never are) candidates for short selling. Information and data are ever changing, so be alert. Every companies "Grade" can from a neutral grade (60 to 90 / D to B) to a buy (greater than 90) or short sale (less than 60) in a very short time.

The twenty-year chart is offered to give you a perspective. "Perspective" is yet another tool for making money that is seldom employed.

My article here in SafeHaven.com on "My Rotation Model" supports the above notes. (click here).

Two-Year Chart of Microsoft

MSFT 2-Year Chart

Do not buy or short Microsoft, without talking with a seasoned financial analyst or perhaps visiting with me via Email.

Microsoft versus S&P500
Larger Image

I suggest that you to take a long look at this 20-year chart. Having a longer-term perspective of a possible future investment will always give you a more consistent bottom line. Comparing Microsoft with the SPDR, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) tells a very compelling and profitable story. If you would like my guidance as to why I suggest that this chart is so important, just let me know.


I am the guy who wrote the 38 week course on Investment Basics. See the link on the right column (side-bar) of SafeHaven.com - Home Page.


General Market - - Where are We and Where are we Going?

Please visit my personal blog, if you have not followed it lately. There is a special announcement that hopefully will make sense to you.

I am not offering General Market - Near or Short-Term Forecasting in any form to the public. I am considering a fancy Newsletter to replace my "free-be" work / analytics. Let me know if you are interested.

General Market: My fundamentals are over-valued. My technicals are over-bought. My consensus opinions are much too bullish. The economies of the world are in much more peril than is being reported by the media.

That means there is going to continue to be a great deal of hurt for the foreseeable future.

Therefore, I am bearish on the general market, the economy, and believe holding long positions in mutual funds for the foreseeable future is not WISE!

The U.S. is already into a recession. You just have not been told by your government, as usual!

I will keep you posted ...


My Blog: http://twitter.com/InvestRotation

So if my Forecasts are "Accurate" and my "Conformations" are working (and they are) then the above formula will yield "Profitable Results."


My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com
Thanks for permitting me to share my "stuff."
I would appreciate your Telling a Friend or Two about my postings here in SafeHaven.com. It is by far the best financial blog on the web.


Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

 


 

Steve Bauer

Author: Steve Bauer

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Steve Bauer

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.

Dr. Bauer also writes for SeekingAlpha.com. His articles can be viewed at: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer?source=search_general&s=steven-bauer

He owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

Professionally he is a financial analyst and private asset manager / consultant / mentor.

Steve can be reached at senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2010-2013 Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright © Safehaven.com

SEARCH





TRUE MONEY SUPPLY

Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/