Two Disturbing Gold Charts

By: Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA | Fri, Aug 3, 2012
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So, gold didn't move below $1,500 and it rallied recently - the worst is behind us, right? It might be, but there are reasons to think otherwise and in today's essay we will feature two charts (courtesy by http://stockcharts.com) that should make you think twice before investing your whole capital in the gold market.

The first one features the Dow:Gold ratio.

$INDU:$GOLD Chart

The ratio appears to have broken above the declining resistance line. This is a bearish sign for gold relative to stocks, as it indicates that stocks will outperform the yellow metal. Please note that gold topped when this ratio bottomed and as the latter rallied, the former declined.

The ratio consolidated in the past few months (as gold did), but since the consolidation took place above the declining resistance line, it confirms the breakout and makes the situation more bullish for the ratio and more bearish for gold. Unfortunately (for those who "like" gold - we fall into this category), the next resistance level is quite far from where the ratio is today and this translates into a possibility of a significant decline in gold.

The second chart for today is the ratio of gold to prices of corporate bonds.

$GOLD:$DJCB Chart

In short, this ratio tells you how gold performed relative to corporate bonds. This chart provides a clear bull market picture with several more or less significant corrections along the way. The "problem" here is that gold has broken two major support lines and has been trading below them for several weeks, which means that these breakdowns were verified.

This suggests that the decline is quite likely to continue and since this ratio moved very much in tune with the price of gold (no wonder - gold is in the numerator of the ratio), it serves as an indication that gold might decline as well.

Summing up, positive long-term fundamentals for gold are in place and we will most probably see much higher gold prices in a few years, however, the medium term is not that clear and we believe that caution is necessary.

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Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

 


 

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Author: Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief
Gold & Silver Investment & Trading Website - SunshineProfits.com

Przemyslaw Radomski

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA (PR) is a precious metals investor and analyst who takes advantage of the emotionality on the markets, and invites you to do the same.

His company, Sunshine Profits, publishes analytical software that anyone can use in order to get an accurate and unbiased view on the current situation.

Recognizing that predicting market behavior with 100% accuracy is a problem that may never be solved, PR has changed the world of trading and investing by enabling individuals to get easy access to the level of analysis that was once available only to institutions.

High quality and profitability of analytical tools available at www.SunshineProfits.com are results of time, thorough research and testing on PR's own capital.

PR believes that the greatest potential is currently in the precious metals sector. For that reason it is his main point of interest to help you make the most of that potential.

As a CFA charterholder, Przemyslaw Radomski shares the highest standards for professional excellence and ethics for the ultimate benefit of society.

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer: All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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