Bulls Have 3 Weeks Left

By: Toby Connor | Mon, Aug 6, 2012
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3 weeks, that's how long the bulls have left before stocks roll over and begin the next intermediate degree decline. That being said, the next 2-3 weeks should yield see some very healthy gains in virtually all asset classes. Why is that you wonder? Well, it's because the dollar has begun moving down into an intermediate degree correction which will, in the next few weeks, fuel the 'risk-on' trade.

As of Friday the dollar was on the 11th day of its current daily cycle. The normal duration of the dollar index daily cycle is 18 to 28 days, with the average being about 23 or 24 days. This suggests that the dollar should bottom somewhere around August 21st or 22nd. As you can see in the chart below whenever the dollar moves down into an intermediate degree trough it generates strong gains in asset prices.

$USD Chart

What follows, once the dollar bottoms and its next intermediate degree rally begins, is not going to be pretty. Stocks are going to start to struggle and ultimately move down hard in September and probably October if the Fed doesn't unleash QE3 at the September FOMC meeting.

By the end of August and certainly by the time we get into September the markets are going to call the central bankers bluff, and it is going to take more than words and the threat of quantitative easing to keep asset prices propped up.

I have covered the rest of the forecast in depth in the weekend report available to premium subscribers.

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Toby Connor

Author: Toby Connor

Toby Connor
Gold Scents

Gold Scents is a financial blog focused on the analysis of the stock market and the secular gold bull market. Subscriptions to the premium service include a daily and weekend market update emailed to subscribers. If you would like to be added to the email list that receives notice of new posts to Gold Scents, or have questions, email Toby.

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Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/