October 2008 and Now

By: Ian Campbell | Thu, Aug 9, 2012
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Why read: To test the contemporaneous views I expressed four years ago, to observe similarities and differences then and now, and to determine if you agree with my current views.

Commentary then: On October 22, 2008, about one month after the Lehman Bros. bankruptcy, I commented on whether I thought the U.S. then was in recession. At that time I said:

How can the U.S. not be in recession? Moreover, I believe it stands to reason that said recession will deepen before we see improvement;

At October 22, 2008 I continue to believe retail consumers are the key to the economic puzzle and where we are headed economically. If we see continuing drops in consumer spending at the retail level in the U.S. and elsewhere, I strongly believe we will find that neither the U.S. Government or any other world government has enough 'fingers' to plug the holes that exist, and are threatening to develop, in the world economic 'dike'.

Commentary today: In summary, and with the benefit of four years of hindsight and experience, what I see today is very little different from what I saw in October, 2008:

As I see things, what were holes in the U.S. economic dyke in October 2008 are now 'bigger holes', and there are more of them.

 


 

Ian Campbell

Author: Ian Campbell

Ian R. Campbell, FCA, FCBV
Economic Straight Talk

Through the Economic Straight Talk Newsletter Ian R. Campbell shares his perspective on the world economy, the financial markets, and natural resources. A recognized business valuation authority, he founded Toronto based Campbell Valuation Partners (1976), Stock Research Portal (2007) a source of resource companies market data and analytic tools, and Economic Straight Talk (2012). The CICBV* annually funds business valuation research in his name**. Contact him at icampbell@srddi.com.
* Canadian Institute of Chartered Business Valuators
** through The Ian R. Campbell Research Initiative

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