Investing Wisely - Exxon Mobil: Forecasts / Confirmations = Profitable Results!

By: Steve Bauer | Sat, Aug 11, 2012
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It is Really Quite Simple

It begins with Accurate Forecasting and Analytic Procedures, then it requires Well Honed Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion Conformations, and it ends with Profitable Results. (F / C = PR)

Professors, F / C = PR - - - Opinion of: Exxon Mobil (XOM):

My most recent articles have been posted here in SafeHaven.com are: AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, AT&T and XOM. You might want to re-read these articles for the accuracy of my forecasts of these companies. The above (F / C = PR) is as accurate and profitable formula as anything you will find in the financial blogs you may be reading.

My near-term Forecast is that Exxon Mobil is has been - on balance - going sideways for well over a year. I would not offer any optimism with the close of $88 on Friday. It was selling for $85 in April 2011, for me this is just another warning.

The foreseeable appreciation picture for Exxon Mobil is not nearly as bright as many financial analysts are publishing. Longer-term valuation forecasts are not all that bright for the next couple of years. Nor are valuations for the Integrated Oil & Gas industry. When the General Market is in trouble (and it IS in trouble) companies like XOM will eventually follow suit. That should be simple to understand because it is nearly impossible for a company with modest valuations to buck the trend of the market. Evidence of this is clear in my opening several sentences, above. The General Market first started showing weakness in second quarter 2011! Think about that for a minute or two when viewing the below charts.

My below charts tell that story very clearly. This being true, Exxon Mobil has and will definitely continue to participate in this pull back. My forecasts over this past year has been completely on target for both Exxon Mobil and other Integrated Oil & Gas Companies and that is their not being profitable (enough) to own.

Most of the companies I feature pay a dividend. (Please read my recent article for Seniors regarding doubling your monthly income). Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end. Many Dow Companies and others are hurting a hurt that is just plain unacceptable asset management. My conservative - fundamental valuation for XOM is a minus 10 - 15+% in the coming months.

Within my professional I also offer Alerts for companies that are like XOM down but will one day again be a very profitable company to own. Let me know if you are interested.

Notes: A snapshot of - - How I Get My Accuracy, Results and Profits ...

It all starts with what I call Comparative Analytics. There are several thousand U.S. Companies in the New York and Nasdaq markets. Each Company is a component of a Sector as well as an Industry Group. There are about 12 - 15 Sectors and well over 200 Industry Groups.

I spend a lot of my time breaking all of these components down to a manageable size. My analytic work, for doing this, uses my unique valuation and time tested technical indicator methodology. This process offers clear guidance as to both the direction of the Marketplace as well as for the near to short-term direction of each sector, industry group and company.

All this work is continuously in place to review any Company or ETF. It is also rather easy to identify the Companies and ETFs that have the highest probability of meaningfully contributing to (ascending) after a clear Bullish Inflection point for the next ensuing rally. This works the same within a Bearish Inflection Point. Again, it is easy to identify the Companies and ETFs (Inverse) that have the highest probability of (descending) in a Bearish environment.

That is how Investing Wisely works for me as well as for my clients! In over 50 years I have never found that investors or financial analysts / asset managers understand and apply this basic and on-going process of consistently making money in the stock market.

A Forecast is just that, an opinion based on the fundamental - valuation, technical charts and consensus opinion on data as well as the information and data that is available at the time of publishing this article. The single factor that can upset a very good forecast is the News. That is why it is important to stay with the facts and real data and not be influenced by outside and temporal flows of media mis-guided information. You may have already noted that each week I feature a new and well-known company for your consideration. I am sorry that cannot possible keep a weekly update for you.

If you would like my most current thoughts on this or another company, please contact me by Email. (Serious investors only - Please!)

Confirmations: "Confirmations" are a review of my fundamental valuations and technical analytics. They are only available at the time of making investment decisions to take bullish or bearish positions.

Profitable Results: Profitable results, like most things in life, come after doing a superior job. A superior job comes from experience, dedication and hard work.

The Professors - Report Card on: Exxon Mobil (XOM)

Company
/ Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
Report Card -
Grade & Direction:

(0 - 100 / A - F) -- Ascending
- Status Quo - Descending
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
The below two charts are an excellent reference. Your study of the short vs. long term should answer many questions!
Good -- My Valuation for Exxon Mobil is quite negative. The longer-term down-side is over 10 - 15+%. Poor -- My Technical Analytics is and has been turning negative. I would recommend selling on what may be a near-term bounce-rally. Good -- Consensus is always overly optimistic. It is a poor guide to investing wisely.
But I still weight it in my decisions to invest or not to invest.
74 / C -- Status Quo

My weighted Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion ratings range from Excellent to Very Poor. Grades below 90 / A are not current (never are) candidates for buying. Grades above 60 / F are not current (never are) candidates for short selling. Information and data are ever changing, so be alert. Every companies "Grade" can from a neutral grade (60 to 90 / D to B) to a buy (greater than 90) or short sale (less than 60) in a very short time.

The twenty-year chart is offered to give you a perspective. "Perspective" is yet another tool for making money that is seldom employed.

My article here in SafeHaven.com on "My Rotation Model" supports the above notes. (click here).

Two-Year Chart of Exxon Mobil
XOM 2-Year Chart

Do not buy or short Exxon Mobil, without talking with a seasoned financial analyst or perhaps visiting with me via Email.

Twenty-Year Chart of Exxon Mobil

Alcoa versus S&P500
Larger Image

I suggest that you to take a long look at this 20-year chart. Having a longer-term perspective of a possible future investment will always give you a more consistent bottom line. Comparing Exxon Mobil with the SPDR, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) tells a very compelling and profitable story. If you would like my guidance as to why I suggest that this chart is so important, just let me know.


I am the guy who wrote the 38 week course on Investment Basics. See the link on the right column (side-bar) of SafeHaven.com - Home Page.


General Market - - Where are We and Where are we Going?

Please visit my personal blog, if you have not followed it lately. There is a special announcement that hopefully will make sense to you. In brief it says: I would like to be paid for my experience, accuracy and hard work. Thousands read it weekly and rarely communicate.

I am not offering General Market - Near or Short-Term Forecasting in any form to the public. I am considering a fancy Newsletter to replace my "free-be" work / analytics. Let me know if you are interested.

General Market: My fundamentals are over-valued. My technicals are over-bought. My consensus opinions are much too bullish. The economies of the world are in much more peril than is being reported by the media.

That means there is going to continue to be a great deal of hurt for the foreseeable future.

Therefore, I am bearish on the general market, the economy, and believe holding long positions in mutual funds for the foreseeable future is not WISE!

The U.S. is already into a recession. You just have not been told by your government, as usual! With elections coming, you may not be told for several months or more!

I will keep you posted ...


My Blog: http://twitter.com/InvestRotation


My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com
Thanks for permitting me to share my "stuff."
I would appreciate your Telling a Friend or Two about my postings here in SafeHaven.com. It is by far the best financial blog on the web.


Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

 


 

Steve Bauer

Author: Steve Bauer

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Steve Bauer

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.

Dr. Bauer also writes for SeekingAlpha.com. His articles can be viewed at: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer?source=search_general&s=steven-bauer

He owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

Professionally he is a financial analyst and private asset manager / consultant / mentor.

Steve can be reached at senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2010-2013 Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

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