A Positive Opinion on U.S. Jobs!
Why Read: To review and think in a balanced way about an optimistic (and different from my) view on the U.S. labour market.
Commentary: The Financial Post (Toronto) recently published an article written by the Eric Lascelles, Chief Economist of RBC Global Asset Management. Mr. Lacelles outlined a number of reasons why he believes that:
the U.S. is years away from a "fully normal labour market" he believes that progress is being made on that front; and,
"we're all going to wake up with a start one morning and realize that obscured beneath the daily clutter of disappointments and furrowed brows, the U.S. economy has managed to heal itself, labour market and all".
As a reader of these Newsletters, you are aware that I believe:
the U.S. has fundamental structural unemployment problems;
that no number of part-time job additions or service sector job additions will compensate for the loss of more meaningful manufacturing jobs;
that technology advances are not 'job friendly'; and,
that many U.S. jobs - particularly manufacturing jobs - that have been lost won't be recovered.
I suggest you take the time to read and think carefully about Mr. Lascelles' article. His 'U.S. Labour glass' seems 'full to the brim', whereas mine is 'less than half full'. It is good to consider all points of view when reaching a conclusion.
I will have no problem being wrong if Mr. Lascelles' view proves to be the correct one. This is, of course, because all other things equal should Mr. Lascelles prove to be right we all will be better off than I expect us to be.