Investing Wisely - Apple, Inc: Forecasts / Confirmations = Profitable Results!

By: Steve Bauer | Mon, Aug 20, 2012
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It is Really Quite Simple

It begins with Accurate Forecasting and Analytic Procedures, then it requires Well Honed Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion Conformations, and it ends with Profitable - Results. (F / C = R )

My most recent articles, posted here in SafeHaven.com are: AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, AT&T and XOM. You may want to re-read these articles for the accuracy of my forecasts and guidance for these companies.

Professors, F / C = R - Opinion of: Apple, Inc. (AAPL): (May 18th.)

My last article on Apple, Inc. was on May 18th here in SafeHaven.com. My Forecast (was): AAPL will have a bounce (near-term) rally in the near-term and then continue lower.

That Forecast was clearly very accurate. On May 18th. Apple was selling for $520 and it is currently at $658. You may also want to check my May 18th. Report Card on AAPL - that too was very accurate. (see below)

Current - Professors, F / C = R -- Opinion of: Apple, Inc. (AAPL): (August 20th.)

I am Forecasting a pull back for Apple but that is pending much more data from my Conformations procedures. (see below for my definition / explanation of "Confirmations") So, how much higher will AAPL go? Not much and certainly not enough to consider taking a long position at this level. Future Valuations are not nearly as positive as those over the past year or so.

For those of you who believe "valuations" are not good lead indicators you must truly have your heads in the sand or some other undesirable place.

My below two charts tell the story of the future direction of AAPL. These same and similar charts for the above listed securities and my entire universe to that job very well.

Two-Year Chart of Apple

AAPL versus SPX - 2-Year Chart

Twenty-Year Chart of Apple

Apple 20-Year Chart
Larger Image

My Clientele is primarily retired folks that often seek dividend monthly income. I believe I can double your monthly check with a very low threshold of risk. Let me know if you are interested.

Notes: a forecast is just that, an opinion based on the fundamental - valuation, technical charts and consensus opinion on data as well as the information and data that is available at the time of publishing the article. Each week I intend on featuring a new and well-known company for your consideration. I am sorry that cannot possible keep a weekly update for you. If you would like my most current thoughts on this or another company, please contact me by Email. (Serious investors only - Please!)

Confirmations: "Confirmations" are a review of my fundamental valuations and technical analytics. They are only available at the time of making investment decisions to take bullish or bearish positions.

Results: Positive results, like most things in life, come after doing a superior job. A superior job comes from experience and hard work.


Report Card on AAPL - May 18th.

Company
Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
Report Card -
Grade:
(0 - 100 / A - F)
AAPL Excellent Very Good Excellent 89+ / B+

Current - Report Card on AAPL - August 20th.

Company
Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
Report Card -
Grade:
(0 - 100 / A - F)
AAPL Very Good Good Excellent 84 / B

My weighted Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion ratings range from Excellent to Very Poor. Grades below 90 / A are not current (never are) candidates for buying. Grades above 60 / F are not current (never are) candidates for short selling. Information and data are ever changing, so be alert. Every companies "Grade" can from a neutral grade (60 to 90 / D to B) to a buy (greater than 90) or short sale (less than 60) in a very short time.

My article here in SafeHaven.com on "My Rotation Model" supports the above notes. (click here).

Do not buy or short AAPL without talking with a seasoned financial analyst or perhaps visiting with me via Email. I have offered and re-offered to provide personal guidance on my entire universe of securities and that includes Apple, Inc.

I suggest that you to take a long look at this 20-year chart. Having a longer-term perspective of a possible future investment will always give you a more consistent bottom line. Comparing AAPL with the SPDR, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) tells a very compelling story. If you would like my guidance as to why I suggest that this chart is so important, just let me know.

I am the guy who wrote the 38 week course on Investment Basics. See the link on the right column (side-bar) of SafeHaven.com - Home Page.



General Market - Where are We and Where are we Going?

If you have visited my Personal Blog you know I no longer will provide short-term General Market Forecasts to the public. I am willing to share on a personal / Email basis but I am tired of giving my "rather accurate forecasts" to hundreds of nameless people who follow my work / analytics

Longer Term: My fundamentals are over-valued. My technicals are over-bought. My consensus opinions are much too bullish. The economy is in much more peril than is being reported by the media.

Therefore, I am bearish on the general market and the economy for the foreseeable future.

My Personal Blog: http://twitter.com/InvestRotation


My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Thanks for permitting me to share my "stuff."
I would appreciate your Telling a Friend or Two about my postings here in SafeHaven.com. It is by far the best financial blog on the web.


Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

 


 

Steve Bauer

Author: Steve Bauer

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Steve Bauer

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.

Dr. Bauer also writes for SeekingAlpha.com. His articles can be viewed at: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer?source=search_general&s=steven-bauer

He owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

Professionally he is a financial analyst and private asset manager / consultant / mentor.

Steve can be reached at senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2010-2013 Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

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TRUE MONEY SUPPLY

Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/