Investing Wisely - Cisco Systems: Forecasts / Confirmations = Results!

By: Steve Bauer | Mon, Sep 10, 2012
Print Email

It is Really Quite Simple

It begins with Accurate Forecasting and Analytic Procedures, then it requires Well Honed Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion Conformations, and it ends with Profitable - Results. (F / C = R)

My most recent articles, posted here in SafeHaven.com are: AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, AT&T and XOM. You may want to re-read these articles for the accuracy of my forecasts and guidance for these companies.

Professors, F / C = R - Forecast /Opinion of: Cisco Systems (CSCO): (June 8th.)

Word for Word: "My Forecast is that CSCO will have a bounce (near-term) rally in the near-term and then continue lower. I just might take a bearish position."

That Forecast was clearly very accurate. On June 8th. - Cisco Systems was selling for $16.50 and it is currently at $19.50. (Not much but an accurate and profitable forecast during this three month period. I expect to be taking profits in the very near-term). You may also want to check my June 8th. - Report Card on CSCO - that too was very accurate. (see below)

If you will read this and my last four postings, here in SafeHaven.com you will note that ALL my previously written Articles ( about 3 months ago ) have provided: Accurate Forecasts and were All Profitable to date. As mentioned, I expect to take profits in AAPL, C, BAC and CSCO in the near term. Future articles on the balance of the above Symbols that I have posted will likely be treated in a similar manner, that is profits will be taken in the near-term.

Current - Professors, F / C = R - Forecast / Opinion of: Cisco Systems (CSCO): (September 11th.)

I am now Forecasting a further pull back for Cisco Systems but (like last week's article on Bank of America) my next Forecast is pending much more data from my Conformations procedures. (see below for my definition / explanation of "Confirmations") Unfortunately, the timing of my Forecasts depends on the Company and not the calendar. Providing Forecasts that are not in sync with the fundamental valuations and technical price movement, for me, is just plain foolish.

Note: If you are interested in privately receiving my on going forecasts for any of the above Symbols or perhaps your current holdings - just send me a request by Email. I will have a couple of questions for you but promise to reply with my best guidance.

So, how much higher will CSCO go? Not much and certainly not enough to consider taking a long position at this level. Remember, the longer term trend is down. I suggest it is simple not very smart to "buck" a trend such as this by owning or holding any common stock.

Future Fundamental Valuations for Cisco Systems and its Industry Groups are becoming more positive as those over the past number of months. For those of you who believe Fundamental "Valuations" are not extremely important, not excellent lead indicators, and not essential to profitable analytics you hopefully will accept my encouragement to change your mind. I have continued to diligently do my Valuation Analytics for over 50 years. May I say that work has been very good to me and my Clients.

My below two charts tell the story of the future direction of Cisco Systems.

There are similar charts for the above listed securities and my entire universe to that job very well. Clearly, my Forecasts for CSCO have been accurate for a very long time. I publish and have published articles with warnings on Cisco Systems in early 2011 as being a Company in the Dow 30 - "Not To Own." Clearly, as noted on the below charts, it has under-performed the Market since that time. At this time, it does not give any hope or promise of recovering soon.

You should understand that my Technical Analysis work is always supported by my Fundamental Valuation of all companies in my universe. I stress the word "all" and my simple little formula noted above works like nothing I have ever seen or read about. I can offer a similar review on any or "all" companies at your request. I will be simple responding to your query with a couple of questions and then give you my most current analytic forecast / opinion.

Conservative Guidance, Direction and Forecasts is what Authors, Financial Analysts and Asset Managers should be paid to do specifically for you. Consistent Accuracy is why I publish these thumbnail articles for your evaluation. I believe 50 years of experience will give you reason to find my work very much worth and profitable.

My article here in SafeHaven.com on "My Rotation Model" supports the above notes. (click here).

Cisco Systems is not a company to Buy or Short at this time. I am just saying there are many other Companies (on my lists) that are currently excellent prospects for Buying or Shorting. I suggest those Companies are more prudent to own. They will also help you with understanding my logo of - Investing Wisely.

Two-Year Chart of Cisco Systems

Two-Year Chart of Cisco Systems

Twenty-Year Chart of Cisco Systems

Twenty-Year Chart of Cisco Systems
Larger Image

Notes: a forecast is just that, an opinion based on the fundamental - valuation, technical charts and consensus opinion on data as well as the information and data that is available at the time of publishing the article. The single factor that can upset a very good forecast is the News. That is why it is important to stay with the facts and real data and not be influenced by outside and temporal flows of media information. Each week I intend on featuring a new and well-known company for your consideration. I am sorry that cannot possible keep a weekly update for you. If you would like my most current thoughts on this or another company, please contact me by Email. (Serious investors only - Please!)

Important Caveat for - My Opinions and Forecasts:

Caveat (an example): I am currently Forecasting a pull back for Cisco Systems. I must use the following explanation to qualify the "When" the pull back will actually begin. It (a pull back or a rally) is always dependent and pending much more data from my Confirmations procedures. (see below for my definition / explanation of "Confirmations").

On any given date it is easy for me to accurately determine a short or long term trend. It is not all that easy to "Pin Point" the "When" a new Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point will occur.

Understand I write these article once or more times per week for my financial blogs and other Advisory Consulting and individual Clients. And, it is a fact that the combined Bullish and Bearish Inflection Points (historically) only occur 3 - 5 times per year.

Cisco Systems is another perfect example: I am Forecasting yet another Bearish Inflection Point. It may have (that) Bearish Inflection Point in the next few days or the Bearish Inflection Point may not occur for several more week. I can forecast, with high probability the Inflection Point is in the making, but I need my "Confirmations" to tell me "When" actual Bearish Infection Point occurs.

That is your problem of being a Follower and not a Client. I Email my Clients on the day my Conformations all kick in and make specific formal (low risk) security recommendations specifically for their needs, goals and objectives. Remember - That event occurs just 3 - 5 times per year. Projected profits are always a minimum of 15% per security per recommendation for Buying or Short Selling.

I hope you will want to Email me with your questions and thoughts about this Caveat and my procedures for guidance in making consistent annual profits.

Confirmations: "Confirmations" occur "When" about a dozen of my special fundamental valuation models and technical chart configurations - kick in. This (waiting) requires much Discipline and Patience for making Wise Investment decisions. I can anticipate a "Conformation" kicking in, but there are always times when I am disappointed. It just does not happen as expected! That, in a nut-shell, is the incredible value of my "Conformations. So, it is back to using my Methodology and waiting for the next investment opportunity to come along.


Results: Positive results, like most things in life, come after doing a superior job. A superior job comes from experience and hard work.

Report Card on Cisco Systems - (June 8th.)

Company
Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
Financial Analysts are
ALWAYs WAY TOO Bullish...
Report Card -
Grade:
(0 - 100 / A - F)
CSCO Poor Poor Good 66 / D - - Descending

Current - Report Card on Cisco Systems - (September 11th.)

Company
Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
Financial Analysts are
ALWAYs WAY TOO Bullish...
Report Card -
Grade:
(0 - 100 / A - F)
-- Descending
CSCO Poor Very Poor Good 69 / D+ - - Descending

My weighted Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion ratings range from Excellent to Very Poor. Grades below 90 / A are not current (never are) candidates for buying. Grades above 60 / F are not current (never are) candidates for short selling. Information and data are ever changing, so be alert. Every companies "Grade" can from a neutral grade (60 to 90 / D to B) to a buy (greater than 90) or short sale (less than 60) in a very short time.

My article here in SafeHaven.com on "My Rotation Model" supports the above notes. (click here).

Do not buy or short Cisco Systems, Inc. without talking with a seasoned financial analyst or perhaps visiting with me via Email.

I suggest that you to take a long look at this 20-year chart. Having a longer-term perspective of a possible future investment will always give you a more consistent bottom line. Comparing CSCO with the SPDR, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) tells a very compelling story. If you would like my guidance as to why I suggest that this chart is so important, just let me know.

I am the guy who wrote the 38 week course on Investment Basics. See the link on the right column (side-bar) of SafeHaven.com - Home Page.



General Market - Where are We and Where are we Going?

My fundamentals are over-valued. My technicals are over-bought. My consensus opinions are much too bullish. The economy is in much more peril than is being reported by the media.

Therefore, I continue to be bearish on the general market and the economy for the foreseeable future.

I will keep you posted ...


My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com
Thanks for permitting me to share my "stuff."
I would appreciate your Telling a Friend or Two about my postings here in SafeHaven.com. It is by far the best financial blog on the web.
Growing my Botique Asset Manage Services is a process of developing confidence with you over time. I invite your questions and thoughts.


Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

 


 

Steve Bauer

Author: Steve Bauer

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Steve Bauer

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.

Dr. Bauer also writes for SeekingAlpha.com. His articles can be viewed at: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer?source=search_general&s=steven-bauer

He owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

Professionally he is a financial analyst and private asset manager / consultant / mentor.

Steve can be reached at senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2010-2013 Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright © Safehaven.com

SEARCH





TRUE MONEY SUPPLY

Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/