Again today I don't have much "new" to say regarding the short-term scenario.
The FED announcement due at 12:30 et will "determine" if price will complete
the corrective EWP off the June lows in the range 1440 - 1450 or if there
is going to be a "blow out top" at the following resistance located at the
weekly gap at 1478.49.
Regarding the longer-term time frame I am moving to a higher probability the
EWP options that imply that price, in the near future, will not revisit the
June lows as long as in the next pull back price does not breach the 200 d
MA which today stands at 1346. Therefore the approaching top may be a wave
(A) of a larger Zig Zag up.
Usually in an extended move price unfolds a Triangle or an Ending Diagonal.
I don't see any clear terminal pattern in the case of SPX, but I do "see" a
potential Ending Diagonal for NDX, which needs the last wave up in order to
be considered completed.
I have been mentioning that the divergence between VIX & SPX is also favoring
at least for the short-term a bearish outcome.
Today I suggest monitoring XIV (Inverse VIX etf), which has been in sync with
SPX since the kick off of the summer rally. So far, Monday's Shooting Star
could have established a potential top. If the negative divergence were maintained
it would be a big red flag for the equity bulls.
Contact: If you would like to contact the author, you can e-mail him
at thewavetrading@gmail.com
The main objective of this project is to share my views on several markets
and asset classes.
In the initial stage TWT website will be a free service.
My main focus will be the equity market with SPX being the leader but I will
also follow US equity sectors, major European indices, fixed income, currencies
and commodities markets.
My analysis is based upon traditional Technical Analysis, Elliot Wave guidelines
and investor sentiment.
My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular
asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on the long and
short side and mainly with leveraged ones (2 x & 3 x).
The advantage of ETF investments is that it allows getting involved in equity
indices & sectors, currencies, fixed income, commodities etc.
Therefore the main purpose of TWT will be to establish investment strategies
regardless if the market is in an up trend or in a down trend, leveraging
the chosen scenario while managing the risk by establishing protective stop
losses.
Hence I will always define the risk, I will try to let winners run the wave
and I will cut the losses if my strategy is wrong.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for educational purposes
only, the information supplied is not a recommendation to buy or sell any
security or financial instrument.
Thewavetrading.com nor the owner can not be held responsible for any loses
occurred from the information provided within the website.
The Information supplied cannot be copied or reproduced without the permission
from the owner.
Circle Us