Saturday (morning) Market Wrap for September 29, 2012

By: Steve Bauer | Sat, Sep 29, 2012
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Good Saturday:

Accuracy in Forecasting is what it is all about:

This all dates back to over 50 years of my work / analytics of Inflection Points.

I have written a large number of articles on my Methodology which is based on the early and clear Forecasting and Identification of all Inflection Points. I know of no other source of information and data that provides LEADING guidance with this consistent accuracy.

I have written Articles on the following. Should you be interested, just let me know.

My Methodology:
My SHB Cycle Analysis:
My Rotation Model:
My Inflection Points:


The Market for the Past Week

Market Wrap

As for the Market this past week: This was the first decent week I have tracked in months. This was refreshing and it appears to be going in MY / OUR direction.

As I have said since OE-3: "I was not impressed with the Market's reaction to QE-3, uninformed and unseasoned Investors poured in their money once again on the announcement in with their normal lack of prudence. Friday (three Friday's ago) did not support Thursday's exuberance (QE-3 announcement) and this past two weeks has offered a pathetic reaction to the Federal Reserve and it's leadership!

The Chicago PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) for September, a key gauge of manufacturing activity, came in far below expectations and showed and confirmed a contracting economy for the first time since 2009.

The Univerisity of Michigan's - Consumer Sentiment Index for September also fell short of expectations.

I find little to de-rail my position that the U.S. is already in an (unannounced) Recession.


Summary

The Market was actually Down again this past week and has begun to internally deteriate!

Note: My Forecast for the General Market is Bearish, but REQUIRE "Confirmations" to be active. Until my "Confirmations" are in place the General Market will continue to churn out a TOP. Hence, Patience and Discipline is, as always, required.

Treasuries were Up a bit but it has looked anemic for nearly 5 months. That's Bearish!

The U.S. Dollar was Up a bit and is looking to rally some more.

Oil (Crude) took it on the chin by almost 6.00% two weeks ago and was Down again this past week by over 1.10% and looks very Bearish for the near-term (one month or so).

Gold hung in there again but was flat. I am Forecasting another Pull-Back.

Commodities (Comprehensive) were Up every so slightly and also look very Bearish.

 


My Analytics

Please look at the following:

As you may already know my main focus is on the General Market Indices, then Sectors, then Industry Groups, then the component Companies. This is often described as the "Top-Down" approach to stock market analytics. My most recent successful study has been to quantify the price movement of the General Market Indices.

You may also remember my mentioning that I have integrated the Breadth of the Marketplace with the Indices. I know of no other Market Indicator that even comes close to doing this important job. To build this Indicator, I use Bond analytics, Momentum / Relative Strength / Volatility Indicators and use the Put and Call Options Marketplace.

My quantification model lent itself well to the Indice Charts such as the Dow 30 Industrials, NY Composite and Nasdaq Composite. I have an updated and revised Chart that is live 24/7 for your inspection. It now has my Weekly measurement (Inflection Point Count - scale: 0 max. Bearish / 100 max. Bullish).

It Closed the Week having Dropped from a Weekly High (just last week) of 94 to 70. I am now looking for a bounce in the next week or so, but this Indicator is doing an exciting job, so far.

The graphic presents a very accurate quantification of the probability of a new Bearish Inflection Point occurring in the very near-term. That means it is Imminent.

I am pleased because this graphic will permit you to see how I go about anticipating new (Bullish or Bearish) Inflection Points. Here-to-for I have not been able to accurately quantify the Weekly price movements as integrated with the Broad Market - call "Breadth.". I believe those days are now gone.

This all dates back to over 50 years of my work / analytics of Inflection Points. I have written a large number of articles on my Methodology which is based on the early and clear Forecasting and Identification of all Inflection Points. I know of no other source of information and data that provides LEADING guidance with this potential of consistent accuracy. I hope you will permit me to share my enthusiasm in the coming weeks...

The following Chart may be used as a graphic reference:

I use the Dow Jones 30 Industrials as the Indice (Index) for my reference. While I do not favor this Index (Dow 30) it is for sure the most followed in the General Marketplace. My favorites to monitor are the NY and Nasdaq Composite Indexes. I / We also now have my new "Breadth" Composite Index to help keep me out of trouble.

The below Dow Jones 30 Industrials Chart (URL) is updated Weekly and presented herein for your on going (24/7) reference. My PublicChart List is a long with many very well know Companies that I use as High Profile / Bellwether Companies. Check it / them out - you will like what you see!

StockCharts ( Dow Jones 30 Industrials ) Public List: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p50720233760&a=270034212

Within the above Chart I have a (Purple) Legend - please read it at least twice for perspective:

I hope you will permit me to answer your Questions and Thoughts.

My Email Address: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com


StockCharts (ALL my High Profile - Bellwether Companies) Public List: http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666


The following are the thirteen Companies that I providing Articles and Alerts / Warnings. Remember, these are only my Bellwether Companies as a partial guide to use my Rotation Model to Identify the Currently Most Favorable Companies and ETFs to consider at the time of the above mentioned Inflection Points.

AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, T, XOM

I hope you will become a regular Follower and perhaps a valued Client. My work / analytics should be very compelling for your considering working with me.

Smile, have fun Investing Wisely,

 


 

Steve Bauer

Author: Steve Bauer

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Steve Bauer

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.

Dr. Bauer also writes for SeekingAlpha.com. His articles can be viewed at: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer?source=search_general&s=steven-bauer

He owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

Professionally he is a financial analyst and private asset manager / consultant / mentor.

Steve can be reached at senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2010-2013 Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

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