Market Report: Elliott Wave Analysis of Silver

By: Nouf | Sun, Sep 30, 2012
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The advance from the pivot lows on 25th Jul have seen strong moves in the US$, Gold and Silver, we can clearly see that they are moving opposite to each other.

Gold, Silver and US Dollar

Using AGQ as a proxy for the price of Silver I suspect it's in a smaller 4th wave and looking for higher prices over the coming weeks and the decline on the US$ appears to setting up for more downside.

There is likely to be some back and forth filling as this market like Gold has come into stiff resistance.

Gold resistance is at $1800, Silver resistance is at $35, and with a wave count that suggests a bit of consolation, we could see a bit of sideways price action for a few days before further upside expected.

It would take a break of the $50 area before I would be concerned that the ideas presented are looking wrong.

The best part of the move appears to be over, as we enter a section of a 5 wave impulse pattern we Elliotticians call a bunch of 3s and 4s, as its at the tail end of a 3rd wave, in this case the end of the wave [3] starting from the 24/25th Jul pivot date.

I am not fully sure what sort of correction will take place here, as I suspect it's a 4th wave pull back it could take the shape of a triangle or even come back and test the $54 area and run the last minor swing low for stops.

However with more US$ weakness expected whilst the DX index remains under 80.50 then I am expecting both Gold and Silver prices to continue higher.

Larger Image

With Silver clearly showing a bullish daily chart, I think this market has higher prices to come; it would take a strong reversal under $32 before I would be concerned with the bullish outcome that should equate to around $50 on AGQ.

I think $40 on Silver is attainable on this leg from the 25th Jul pivot providing we don't see a strong reversal in the US$.

Larger Image

That's the key atm to the upside in Gold and Silver, the bulls need to see the US$ remain in a down trend and continue lower, as lower projections towards 75 or 73 on the DX index, should see $2000 on Gold and $40 on Silver.

The market is bullish on all time frames, so there is little point trying to sell a market that is still showing strength, especially when we clearly can see its moving inverse to the US$ movements, so until the US$ sees some strong upside, then IMO the trend is likely to move higher over the coming weeks in the precious metals.

Until next time,

Have a profitable week ahead.




Author: Nouf


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