Update: Investing Wisely -- Performance

By: Steve Bauer | Mon, Oct 1, 2012
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Update

Beginning in mid-May of this year, I started publishing Weekly articles on thirteen High Profile / Bellwether Companies. These articles all have to do with my Forecasting Methodology and therefore are specific Company published records of my Opinions, Forecast and Guidance.

Performance is the most important factor when judging and Athlete, Actor, Writer, etc. and certainly an Asset Manager / Financial Analyst. I am well credentialed in the latter two professions. My fifty some years of managing assets has had its ups and a few downs but I do have many, many profitable years from which to be pleased professionally.

These articles are provided for guidance for your and my future of Investing Wisely (Profitably) in the stock market. Yes, these few Companies have lead me to being profitable in well over 90% of my Forecasts and Recommendations over all these years. My goal is to provide You and Clients with low risk and consistent annual profitability. Please remember that these thirteen companies are just a (High Profile / Bellwether) sample of what I keep focused on in my universe of securities. I seldom recommend these Companies because there are almost always lower risk / higher probability Companies on my Buy and Short-Sell List. Of course the exception is Apple, Inc.

These are the thirteen High Profile / Bellwether Companies:

AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, T, XOM.

You likely are already aware that I have a very accurate and profitable Methodology. It is based on the fact that All Companies, Industry Groups and Sectors - "Rotate" in and out of favor over time. It is a rather simple formula that says if it is currently in favor it will not be long before it is out of favor and likewise if it is a quality Company and is currently out of favor it will not be long before it is back in favor again. It's a matter of patience and diligent and on going securities analytics.

Often, I received a number of Emails asking my opinion about the General Market, the Economy, this list of Companies and often Companies currently being held in the senders portfolio. My answers are always prompt and as complete as I feel I can be without knowing more about the specific Investors Financial (Needs, Goals and Objectives).

Performance Record

Performance as given by private Asset Managers (such as myself) and Mutual Funds is often not clear and therefore misunderstood by Investors. That is because it is of the old saying "Liars can Figure but Figures can't Lie." You have the published articles references to my "Figures" (in my blogs) and they are not and cannot be - A Lie!

I hope you also understand from my many articles that I use: Fundamental Valuation / Technical Analysis / Consensus Opinion all integrated into my Methodology of Investing Wisely. For me it is also the WHAT / WHEN and the WHY that must be "Confirmed" before I am able to activate my Forecast. That delay or time frame may be a few days or a few weeks after my specific General Market, Commodity, or Company Forecast. I wait for my "Conformations" to kick in before making formal and specific recommendations to my Clients. Unfortunate, this is rather complex to explain because of the ever changing dynamics of the Stock Market, Sectors, Industry Groups and component Companies. I invite you to Email your questions and thoughts and I will be prompt and as specific as possible in my reply.

My Thirteen Companies - Performance Record - May Bullish Forecast ("Confirmed") - - Late May to Date 2012

Average Performance to Date: (12 of 13 Profits - One 1.0% Loss!) - Average 17.92% in these 3+ months. (Remember, other than AAPL these are very stogy Companies).

Year to Date Performance: (25 of 26 Profits) + 26%. (No "article" reference is available for my ("Confirmed" Bullish Forecast in January).

Late May to Date Performance

Symbol Company / Price in Late May (when "Confirmed") -
Price Now or When Terminated and Percent Gain or Loss.
AA Alcoa, Inc. / Then: $8.20. & Now: $8.90. Percent Gain: 9%
AAPL Apple, Inc. // Then: $551. & Now: $667. Percent Gain: 21%
BAC Bank of America // Then: $6.50. & Now: $8.80.xx. Percent Gain: 35%
C Citigroup, Inc. // Then: $25.10. & Now: $32.70. Percent Gain: 30%
CMCSA Comcast Corp. // Then: $30.40. & Now: $35.60. Percent Gain: 17%
CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. // Then: $15.40. & Now: $19.10. Percent Gain: 24%
F Ford Motor Co. // Then: $10.00. & Now: $9.90. Percent Loss: (1%)
GE General Electric Co. // Then: $17.90. & Now: $22.70. Percent Gain: 27%
GOOG Google, Inc. // Then: $575. & Now: $755. Percent Gain: 31%
INTC Intel Corp. // Then: $25.00. & Now: $26.60. Percent Gain: 6% (profit taken)
MSFT Microsoft Corp. // Then: $28.80. & Now: $29.80. Percent Gain: 3% (profit taken)
T AT&T, Inc. // Then: $34.00 & Now: $37.70. Percent Gain: 11%
XOM Exxon Mobil Corp. // Then: $76.30 & Now: $91.50. Percent Gain: 20%
Average Gain: 17.92%

The Above Prices / Percentages: On May 18, 2012 I published my "Forecast" for Apple, Inc. It read: "AAPL will have a bounce (near-term) rally in the near-term and then continue lower." These and similar words were repeated for all of the above 13 Companies as their specific article was published. My Forecast was a ("Confirmed") Forecast. While I have been am currently Bearish I have let this "near-term" (about one month) rally become a short-term (one to three months) rally.

I often publish an article talking about the importance of "Being Selective." Clearly the Percent Gains vary greatly. My work / analytics very accurately identifies those Companies that have the highest probability of profit.

In the following weeks since my Forecast these words have been repeated with the addition of multiple Bearish "Warnings." As of this Date I have NOT Terminated that original Forecast.

Current Opinions of Dr. Steve: The General Market and some Sectors and Industry Groups remains very strong, as it should from my earlier ( past two years ) fundamental valuation work of each and every one (about 300 in all). However, increasing caution is the focus on this, my current analytics.

Remember, you are not at Client, and I am not available to you -- 24/7 for updates. If you would like a more personalized financial relationship, just sent me an Email with some detail of your Financial (Needs, Goals, and Objectives).

Please: Always contact a seasoned financial analyst or Email me before making any investment decisions. This is not intended as a Free-Bee form of Guidance. Your misinterpretations of my words and meaning can be costly to you.


Charts

I maintain a large list of Companies and Indices in my StockChart Public Blog. The above and many more Charts are yours to view as frequently as you wish and are always up to the minute current. Click on Public Blog to access.

There many more Companies, Indices and Sectors in the above Public Blog.

AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, T, XOM.


Summary

For Investing Wisely - Patience and Discipline is often more important than the above data, tables, charts and information. However, the focus is always the question: do I Buy, Sell or Hold? My question for you is, (When I Sell or Terminate a Position) do you have the Patience and Discipline to hold Cash for a time? And, can you wait until you can be 90+% sure to profit? That is one of the many TRICKS within my Methodology of Investing Wisely.

My criterion for taking a bullish position is that the company must have the prospect within its fundamental valuation and technical charts to outperform the general market, its sector, and industry group. Accomplishing this is really not all that difficult.

Currently, there are notable warnings about these companies and many others that are traded so freely each and every day. It is a fact that, the stock market cycles endlessly both fundamentally and technically. It continuously moves from bullish cycle to bearish cycle and then back to bullish cycle again. Unfortunately, this is a pattern that is not well-understood or taken advantage of by most investors.

This analytic work I do each day is fun and profitable. There is always a list of the best (for buying) and worst (for shorting) companies to further valuate and study. Seeking profits by focusing on the best companies (to Buy), or perhaps the worst companies (to Short) is definitely a challenge. The companies in-between the best and the worst are never considered as a current investment. As I said before, all companies rotate into favor and out of favor. Each company takes its turn, at being one of the best or perhaps one of the worst. To be consistently profitable, we must fundamentally and technically always be prepared with, up to date, lists of the best and the worst companies to monitor. This work must be complete, well ahead of the pending bullish or bearish market cycle.

I hope you like my methodology and will continue to follow my work / analytics. It won't be long before I can offer you a bullish and up-beat (Bullish) Forecast once again. Just be Patient and maintain Discipline. I'll help if you would like guidance.


Conclusion

I am currently bearish on both the World Economies and the General Market. My more recent archive articles are focused on securities that should not be currently held in your portfolio. I suggest that it is important for you to understand that holding Cash is often a wise decision. During bearish cycles, this advice is always profitable for you. I can assure you that; this is definitely a "bearish cycle" time frame!

In addition, I no longer believe that a Retiree can compete with the Professionals and that they should seek Guidance from a seasoned Asset Manager / Financial Advisor.

I can also assure you that I am longer-term bullish on all of these companies. Their bullish cycle will return again in the coming months. Currently, my "holding cash" advice is both prudent and Investing Wisely.

My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Thanks for permitting me to share my "stuff."

I would appreciate your Telling a Friend or Two about my postings here in SA and in SafeHaven.com.

Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

 


 

Steve Bauer

Author: Steve Bauer

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Steve Bauer

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.

Dr. Bauer also writes for SeekingAlpha.com. His articles can be viewed at: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer?source=search_general&s=steven-bauer

He owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

Professionally he is a financial analyst and private asset manager / consultant / mentor.

Steve can be reached at senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2010-2013 Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

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