Investing Wisely - ATT: Forecasts / Confirmations = Results!

By: Steve Bauer | Tue, Oct 2, 2012
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It is Really Quite Simple - F / C - R

It begins with Accurate Forecasting and Analytic Procedures that produce consistent profits, then it requires Well Honed Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion --Conformations, and it nearly always ends with Profitable - Results. (F / C = R)

My most recent series of articles, posted here in SafeHaven.com are: AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, AT&T and XOM. These are my High Profile / Bellwether Companies I primarily use in my work / analytics. (They are NOT often my favorite Companies to recommend Buying to my Clients! They are too stogy and other Companies often have a much better - Risk to Reward Ratio.) You may want to re-read these articles to confirm the accuracy of my forecasts and guidance for these Companies.

Report Card on ALL 13 of these "Confirmed" Forecasted Securities from Professor -- Dr. Steve

Company
Symbols
Time Frame Status Approximate
Profitability to Date
(for the past 3 Months)
Report Card
- Grade for
this Bullish Cycle:
All the Above 13 Symbols Date of publishing my SafeHaven.com Article on the Company. (please see my Archive). Still Holding -- It has been about 3 months. As noted below, I expect to take profits in the very Near-Term. 12 of 13 are Profitable. 18% Average Profitability for the past 3 months. A+

Professors, F / C = R - Forecast /Opinion of: AT&T (T): (June 30th.)

Quoting my (June 30th.) Forecast: "My Forecast is that AT&T is getting toppy and I have put out an initial warning to my clients. The picture for AT&T is not as bright as you might expect. The past year has been extraordinary for both AT&T and Verizon.

That Forecast was my first level Warning and clearly not very accurate. However, I was on a Bullish and "Confirmed" Forecast. On June 30th. - AT&T was selling for $34.00 and it is currently at $38.00. (Not much, about 15% but an accurate and profitable "Confirmed" Forecast during this three month period. I expect to be taking profits in the very near-term - remember AT&T is amongst one of the most stogy Dow Companies to own!). You may also want to check my June 30th. - Report Card on AT&T - that too was very accurate. My most current Report Card is less Bullish. (see below)

If you will read this and my last six Company postings, here in SafeHaven.com you will note that ALL, but one of my previously written Articles (about 3 months ago) have provided: Accurate "Confirmed" Forecasts and are, on average, Profitable to date.

It is most important for you to understand that my work / analytics, as has been mentioned many times, is based on a Methodology that focuses on two key aspects of analytics. The first and primary is Fundamental Valuation and the second is Inflection Point (Technical) analysis. It is also critical for consistent profits to understand My Rotation Model.

My article here in SafeHaven.com on "My Rotation Model" supports the above notes. (click here).

At this time and based on the above mentioned "focus" that I expect to take profits in the remaining twelve Companies listed above, based on my rather accurate Forecasts of about three months ago. (Profits were taken for INCT). Future articles on the balance of the above Symbols that I have posted will likely be sold and this profits locked in. Unfortunately I cannot post these articles on Companies in the same manner I can communicate (Email) my private Clientele.

You might want to visit my recent article here in SafeHaven.com - Updating the Performance of these "Confirmed" Forecast. (click here):

To graphically follow my Inflection Point (Technical) analysis, please use this URL: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p50720233760&a=270034212

Current - Professors, F / C = R - Forecast / Opinion of: AT&T (T): (October 2nd.)

I am now Forecasting (Not Yet ""Confirmed) a pull back for AT&T but (like my recent article on Cisco Systems) my next Forecast is pending on much more data from my "Confirmation" procedures. (please see below for my definition / explanation of "Confirmations") Unfortunately, the timing of my Forecasts depends on the Company and not the calendar. Buying Companies that are not in sync with my fundamental valuations and technical price movement, for me, is just plain foolish as well as expensive. You just might want to "plug in" to my work / analytics, just a bit more.

Note: If you are interested in privately receiving my on going forecasts for any of the above Symbols or perhaps your current holdings - just send me a request by Email. I will have a couple of questions for you but promise to reply with my best guidance.

So, how much higher will AT&T go? Back in late June I do Not think it would be much more! I was fooled but that is the value of having a Methodology that helps to keep you in Companies that are trending higher and have a Very Good Report Card. At the time AT&T was certainly not strong enough to consider Buying, that is taking a long position at that level. I do Not advise Buying at this level either.

Future Fundamental Valuations for AT&T and its Industry Group are NOT becoming more positive as many other Industry Groups and Companies that I have reviewed over the past couple of months.

For those of you who believe Fundamental "Valuations" are not extremely important, not an excellent lead indicators, and not essential to consistently profitable analytics you hopefully will accept my encouragement to change your mind. I have continued to diligently do my Valuation Analytics for over 50 years. May I say that work has been very good to me as well as for my Clients.

My below two charts also tell the story of the future direction of AT&T.

Please understand that my Technical Analysis work is always supported by my Fundamental Valuation of all companies in my universe.

I stress the value of my simple little formula noted above works like nothing I have ever seen or read about. I can offer a "free" review on any or "all" Companies in your Portfolio with your request. I will respond to your Email query with a couple of questions and then give you my most current analytic Forecast (not "Confirmed" / Opinion.

Conservative Guidance, Direction and Forecasts is what Authors, Financial Analysts and Asset Managers should be paid to do specifically for you and your Financial (Needs, Goals and Objectives). Consistent Accuracy is why I publish these thumbnail articles for your evaluation. I believe 50 years of experience will give you reason to find my work very much worth and profitable.

AT&T is not a company to Buy or Short at this time. I am just saying there are many other Companies (on my lists) that are always excellent prospects for Buying or Shorting. I suggest those Companies are more prudent to own. They will also help you with understanding my logo of - Investing Wisely.

Two-Year Chart of AT&T

AT&T 2-Year Chart

Twenty-Year Chart of AT&T

AT&T versus S&P500
Larger Image

Notes: a Forecast is just that, an opinion based on the fundamental - valuation, technical charts and consensus opinion this is on data as well as the information that is available at the time of publishing an article. It is the "Confirmation" of that Forecast that is most important!

The single factor that can upset a very good Forecast is the News. News however, is only a delay in the Bullish or Bearish direction of a given Forecast. That is why it is important to stay with the facts and real data and not be influenced by outside and temporal flows of media and other misguided information.

Each week I intend on featuring another of the above Companies for your consideration. I am sorry that cannot possible keep a weekly update for you.

If you would like my most current thoughts on this or another company, please contact me by Email. (Serious investors only - Please!)


Important Caveat for - My Opinions and Forecasts:

Caveat (an example): I am currently Forecasting a pull back for AT&T. I must use the following explanation to qualify the "When" the pull back will actually begin. It (the "When" of a Forecast of a pull back or a rally) is always dependent and pending on much more data from my "Confirmations" procedures). (see below for my definition / explanation of "Confirmations").

On any given date it is easy for me to accurately determine a short or long-term trend. It is not all that easy to "Pin Point" the "When" a new Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point will occur.

Understand I write these article once or more times per week for my financial blogs and other Advisory Consulting and Individual Clients. And, it is a fact that the combined Bullish and Bearish Inflection Points (historically) only occur 3 - 5 times per year.

AT&T is another perfect example: I am Forecasting yet another Bearish Inflection Point. It (AT&T) may have (that) Bearish Inflection Point in the next a number of days or the Bearish Inflection Point may not occur for several more week. I can Forecast, with high probability the Inflection Point is in the making, but I need my "Confirmations" to tell me "When" the next Bullish or Bearish Infection Point occurs.

That is your problem of being a Follower and not a Client. I Email my Clients on the day my "Conformations" have all kicked- in and make specific formal (low risk) security recommendations specifically for their specific needs, goals and objectives. Remember - That event occurs just 3 - 5 times per year. Projected profits are always a minimum of 15% per security per recommendation for Buying or Short Selling.

I hope you will want to Email me with your questions and thoughts about this Caveat and my procedures for guidance in making consistent annual profits.

Confirmations: "Confirmations" occur "When" about a dozen of my special fundamental valuation models and technical chart "Configurations" - kick-in. This (waiting) requires much Discipline and Patience for making Wise Investment decisions. I can anticipate a "Conformation" kicking in. It just does not often happen as expected! That, in a nut-shell, is the incredible value of my "Conformations."


Results (Profits): Profitable Results, like most things in life, come after doing a superior job. A superior job comes from experience and hard work.

Report Card on AT&T - (June 30th.)

Company
Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
ALWAYS WAY TOO Bullish...
Report Card -
Grade:
(0 - 100 / A - F)
AT&T Good Very Good Very Good 83 / B - - Descending

Current - Report Card on AT&T - (October 2nd.)

Company
Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
ALWAYS WAY TOO Bullish...
Report Card -
Grade:
(0 - 100 / A - F)
- - Descending
AT&T Good Very Good Very Good 76 / C - - - Descending

My weighted Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion ratings range from Excellent to Very Poor. Grades below 90 / A are not current (never are) candidates for buying. Grades above 60 / F are not current (never are) candidates for short selling. Information and data are ever changing, so be alert. Every companies "Grade" can from a neutral grade (60 to 90 / D to B) to a buy (greater than 90) or short sale (less than 60) in a very short time.

My article here in SafeHaven.com on "My Rotation Model" supports the above notes. (click here).

Do not buy or short AT&T, Inc. without first talking with a seasoned financial analyst or perhaps visiting with me via Email.

I suggest that you to take a long look at this 20-year chart. Having a longer-term perspective of a possible future investment will always give you a more consistent bottom line. Comparing AT&T with the SPDR, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) tells a very compelling story. If you would like my guidance as to why I suggest that this chart is so important, just let me know.


I am the guy who wrote the 38 week course on Investment Basics. See the link on the right column (side-bar) of SafeHaven.com - Home Page.


General Market - Where are We and Where are we Going?

My fundamentals are over-valued. My technicals are over-bought. My consensus opinions are much too bullish. The economy is in much more peril than is being reported by the media.

Therefore, I continue to be bearish on the general market and the economy for the foreseeable future.

I will keep you posted ...


My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Thanks for permitting me to share my "stuff."

I would appreciate your Telling a Friend or Two about my postings here in SafeHaven.com. It is by far the best financial blog on the web.

Growing my Botique Asset Manage Services is a process of developing confidence with you over time. I invite your questions and thoughts.

Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

 


 

Steve Bauer

Author: Steve Bauer

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Steve Bauer

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.

Dr. Bauer also writes for SeekingAlpha.com. His articles can be viewed at: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer?source=search_general&s=steven-bauer

He owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

Professionally he is a financial analyst and private asset manager / consultant / mentor.

Steve can be reached at senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2010-2013 Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

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