The State of the Trend

By: George Krum | Sat, Oct 6, 2012
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The trend is up in all time frames: daily, weekly and monthly.

During the last couple of weeks our focus was on two things: the 1450 level and waiting for the market breadth cycle to turn around. They both proved their relevance and provided us with needed guidance to stay on the right side of the market.

1450 acted as intraday support/resistance many times during the past five days, while market internals started improving and, as we expected, kept the SPX and OEX trend intact:

We mentioned something else, however, and that was weak Election year seasonality, which points to sideways/down movement until the end of October. Keeping in mind seasonality, and the fact that our market breadth indicator has reached overbought levels, it should come as no surprise that the SP500 couldn't break through double top resistance at 1470 despite a favorable jobs report:

For next week we'll keep a close eye on 1450 - 1470 for signs of a short-term break-out/break-down. And we will remain fairly optimistic as long as the SPX trades above 1430.

 


 

George Krum

Author: George Krum

George Krum
www.citdates.blogspot.com

George Krum is the author of the "CIT Dates" blog, and the following apps available from iTunes:

OddsTrader - uses the power of Hurst Channels to produce price and time targets, and combines them with proper risk and position size management.

OT Trend - helps you quantify and forecast the seemingly random ebb and flow of stock, index or mutual fund movement.

OT Fibonacci - automates the process of applying Fibonacci numbers, ratios and time series to any security.

OT Seasonal - allows you to perform seasonal analysis on practically any security from around the world and to build long-term forecasts and models.

OT Pairs - is the first mobile app that gives users access to one of the most profitable and time tested hedge fund trading strategies.

OT Pivots - combines the power of Pivot lines with cycles and automatic signal generation.

Gann 9 - is the only financial app that allows users to effortlessly apply the legendary W.D. Gann's tools and methods for trading (including the Square of 9).

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