Investing Wisely - FORD: Forecasts / Confirmations = Results!

By: Steve Bauer | Tue, Oct 9, 2012
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It is Really Quite Simple - F / C - R

It begins with Accurate Forecasting and Analytic Procedures that produce consistent profits, then it requires Well Honed Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion -- Confirmations, and it nearly always ends with Profitable - Results. (F / C = R)

My most recent series of articles, posted here in SafeHaven.com are: AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, AT&T, XOM. (To view my 20-Year Charts - Click on the Symbol).

These are my High Profile / Bellwether Companies I primarily use in my work / analytics to Identify Candidates for Buying in Bullish Cycles and Candidates for Shorting in Bearish Cycles. (They are NOT often my favorite Companies to Recommend for Buying or Shorting to my Clients! Other Companies often have a much better - Risk to Reward Ratio and Profit Projection.) You may want to re-read these articles to confirm the accuracy of my Forecasts and Guidance for these Companies.

Professors, F / C = R - Forecast / Opinion of: FORD (F): (July 6th.)

Quoting my (June 30th.) Forecast: "My near-term Forecast is that FORD has been coming down since February when I put out an initial Warning to my Clients. The picture for Ford is not nearly as bright as most financial analysts publish. This past year has been extraordinary for both Ford and General Motors. Ant, that is being negative in a nice way.

That Forecast was my first level Warning and clearly very accurate. However, I was on a Bullish and "Confirmed" Forecast. In early June - FORD was selling for $10.00 and it is currently at $10.25. (Not much of a profit, but an accurate and profitable "Confirmed" Forecast during this three month period. I expect to be taking minimal profits in the very near-term - remember FORD is still not a "favored" High Profile Company).

You may also want to check my July 6th. - Report Card on FORD - that too was very accurate. My most current Report Card is even less positive. (see below)

If you will read this and my last seven Company postings, here in SafeHaven.com you will note that ALL, but one of my previously written Articles ( about 3 months ago ) have provided: Accurate "Confirmed" Forecasts and are, on average, Profitable to date.

It is most important for you to understand that my work / analytics, as has been mentioned many times, is based on a Methodology that focuses on two key aspects of analytics. The first and primary is Fundamental Valuation and the second is Inflection Point (Technical) analysis. It is also critical for consistent profits to understand My Rotation Model.

My article here in SafeHaven.com on "My Rotation Model" supports the above notes. (click here).

I expect to take profits in the remaining twelve Companies listed above, in the very near-term. (Profits were taken for INCT). Unfortunately I cannot post these articles on Companies in the same manner I can communicate (Email) my private Clientele.

You might want to visit my recent article here in SafeHaven.com - Updating the Performance of these "Confirmed" Forecast. (click here):

To graphically follow my Inflection Point (Technical) analysis, please use this URL: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p50720233760&a=270034212

Current - Professors, F / C = R - Forecast / Opinion of: FORD (F): (October 9th.)

I am now Forecasting (Not to Be "Confirmed") a further pull back for FORD.

Please scroll down to "My Forecast Summary" - for all thirteen of the above Companies.

Buying / Shorting Companies (any Companies) that are not in sync with my fundamental valuations and technical price movement is for me, often an expensive mistake.

Note: If you are interested in privately receiving my on going forecasts for any of the above Symbols or perhaps your current holdings - just send me a request by Email. I will have a couple of questions for you but promise to reply with my best guidance.

Two-Year Chart of FORD

Ford 2-Year Chart

Twenty-Year Chart of FORD

Ford versus S&P500 20-Year Chart
Larger Image

Notes: My Forecast is just that, an opinion based on my fundamental - valuation, technical charts and consensus opinion this is on data as well as the information that is available at the time of publishing an article. It is the "Confirmation" of that Forecast that is most important! Until I can "Confirm" a Bullish or Bearish security to Recommend to my Clients - We Remain in Cash!

The single factor that can delay a very good Forecast is the News. News however, is only a temporary delay in the Bullish or Bearish direction of a given Forecast. That is why it is important to stay with the facts and real data and not be influenced by outside and temporal flows of media and other misguided information.

As you know by now, each week I rotate and feature another of the above Companies for your consideration of my accuracy and ability to produce consistent profitable Guidance.

If you would like my most current thoughts on this or another company, please contact me by Email. (Serious Investors only - Please!)


My Forecast Summary

My Forecast Summary

Notes: Warnings have three levels. Level #1 is an initial Warning to be prepared to sell that security. Level #2 is saying this is getting serious. Level #3 is a final Warning and I am using only my Technical skills to determine - When to Sell!

Important Caveat for - My Opinions, Guidance and Forecasts:

Caveat (an example): I am currently Forecasting a pull back for FORD. I must use the following explanation to qualify the "When" the pull back will actually begin. It (the "When" of a Forecast of a pull back or a rally) is always dependent and pending on much more data from my "Confirmations" procedures). (see below for my definition / explanation of "Confirmations").

On any given date it is easy for me to accurately determine a short or long-term trend. It is not all that easy to "Pin Point" the "When" a new Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point will occur.

Understand I write these article once or more times per week for my financial blogs and other Advisory Consulting and Individual Clients. And, it is a fact that the combined Bullish and Bearish Inflection Points (historically) only occur 3 - 5 times per year.

FORD is another perfect example: I am Forecasting yet another Bearish Inflection Point. It (FORD) may have (that) Bearish Inflection Point in the next a number of days or the Bearish Inflection Point may not occur for several more week. I can Forecast, with high probability the Inflection Point is in the making, but I need my "Confirmations" to tell me "When" the next Bullish or Bearish Infection Point occurs.

I Email my Clients on the day my "Confirmations" have all kicked- in and make specific formal (low risk) security recommendations specifically for their specific Financial (needs, goals and objectives). Remember - That event occurs just 3 - 5 times per year. Minimum Projected Profits are always a minimum of 15% per security per recommendation for Buying or Short Selling.

I hope you will want to Email me with your questions and thoughts about this Caveat and my procedures for Guidance in helping to make you consistent annual profits.

Confirmations: "Confirmations" occur "When" about a dozen of my special fundamental valuation models and technical chart "Configurations" - kick-in. This (waiting) requires much Discipline and Patience for making Wise Investment decisions. I can anticipate a "Conformation" kicking in. It just does not often happen as expected! That, in a nut-shell, is the incredible value of my "Confirmations."

Results (Profits): Profitable Results, like most things in life, come after doing a job well. And that all comes from experience and hard work.


Report Card on FORD - (July 6th.)

Company
Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
Financial Analysts are
ALWAYs WAY TOO Bullish...
Report Card - Grade
(0 - 100 / A - F)
FORD - (F) Poor Poor Good 72 / C- - - Descending

Current - Report Card on FORD - (October 9th.)

Company
Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
Financial Analysts are
ALWAYs WAY TOO Bullish...
Report Card - Grade
(0 - 100 / A - F) --
Descending
FORD - (F) Very Poor Very Poor Good 68 / D - - - Descending

My weighted Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion ratings range from Excellent to Very Poor. Grades below 90 / A are not current (never are) candidates for buying. Grades above 60 / F are not current (never are) candidates for short selling. Information and data are ever changing, so be alert. Every companies "Grade" can from a neutral grade (60 to 90 / D to B) to a buy (greater than 90) or short sale (less than 60) in a very short time.


I am the guy who wrote the 38 week course on Investment Basics. See the link on the right column (side-bar) of SafeHaven.com - Home Page.


General Market - Where are We and Where are we Going?

My fundamentals are over-valued. My technicals are over-bought. My consensus opinions are much too bullish. The economy is in much more peril than is being reported by the media.

Therefore, I continue to be bearish on the general market and the economy for the foreseeable future.

I will keep you posted ...


My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com
Thanks for permitting me to share my "stuff."
I would appreciate your Telling a Friend or Two about my postings here in SafeHaven.com. It is by far the best financial blog on the web.

Growing my Botique Asset Manage Services is a process of developing confidence with you over time. I invite your questions and thoughts.


Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

 


 

Steve Bauer

Author: Steve Bauer

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Steve Bauer

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.

Dr. Bauer also writes for SeekingAlpha.com. His articles can be viewed at: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer?source=search_general&s=steven-bauer

He owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

Professionally he is a financial analyst and private asset manager / consultant / mentor.

Steve can be reached at senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2010-2013 Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

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