Spain Headed in a Downward Spiral?

By: Ian Campbell | Wed, Oct 10, 2012
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An article yesterday discusses what appears to be continued downward economic trends in Spain. I see this as hardly unexpected by those who have been following Spain closely.

I strongly suggest you read Austerity fails to close Spain's budget black hole if you have not already done that. If you participate in the financial markets, and Spain is not highly visible on your radar screen, I suggest it ought to be.

Note in particular ongoing 'adverse austerity' Spanish populace issues, and an IMF statement that Spain's economic output "won't return to the 2008 level until at least 2017. Consider the probability/credibility of any 5-year forecast being accurate for any country in today's economic environment. Then recall as a child playing being 'made dizzy' and playing 'Pin the Tail on the Donkey'.

You might also want to read Spanish bailout may not be effective, QE may not work.

At the risk of being overly repetitive, recall that in 2011 measured by GDP Spain was the 4th largest economy in the 17 country Eurozone (after Germany, France and Italy), the 5th largest economy in the 27 country European Union, and the 12th largest economy in the world. By comparison, Greece was the 8th largest economy in the Eurozone, and the 35th largest economy in the world. In 2011 Spain's reported GDP was 5 times that of Greece. (source: Wikipedia)

Consider the economic fervor Greece has caused, and continues to cause, on the world economic stage. Imagine what will happen if Spain indeed becomes the 'next Greece'.

Topical References: Austerity fails to close Spain's budget black hole, from The Financial Post, from Bloomberg News, Ben Sills, October 9, 2012 - reading time 3 minutes. Also see: Spanish bailout may not be effective, QE may not work, from Also Sprach Analyst, Peter Tchir, October 9, 2012 - reading time 3 minutes.



Ian Campbell

Author: Ian Campbell

Ian R. Campbell, FCA, FCBV
Business Transition Simplified

Through his website and his Business Transition & Valuation Review newsletter Ian R. Campbell shares his perspectives on business transition, business valuation and world economic and financial markets influences on those two topics. A recognized business valuation and transition authority, he founded Toronto based Campbell Valuation Partners Limited (1976). He currently is working to bring his business valuation and transition experience to both business owners and their advisors in our new economic, business and financial markets normal.

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