EUR/USD: No Lower Low Has Been Made Yet
EUR/USD has broken its short-term rising trendline but has failed, thus far, to move below its previous low at 1.2804 (01/10/2012 low). This potential higher low could indicate a symmetrical triangle formation. Monitor the resistance implied by the declining trendline (around 1.3040).
Even though the long-term trend is still negative (see long-term declining trendline linking the May 2011 high with the August 2011 high), we need to see a break of the support at 1.2755 (see also 38.2% retracement) to suggest that the rise that started in July 2012 is over.