Saturday (morning) Weekly Market Wrap for October 13, 2012
Good Morning: It's Saturday:
Accuracy in Forecasting is what it is all about:
This all dates back to over 50 years of my work / analytics of Inflection Points.
I have written a large number of articles on my Methodology which is based on the early and clear Forecasting and Identification of all Inflection Points. I know of no other source of information and data that provides LEADING guidance with this consistent accuracy.
I have written Articles on the following. Should you be interested, just let me know.
My SHB Cycle Analysis:
My Rotation Model:
My Inflection Points:
The Market for the Past Week
As for the Market this past week: This was again a "boring" and "do nothing" week. The weeks was NOT Up as I Forecast on Sunday of last week. More on that tomorrow.
Last Week I said: I am afraid that the "political scene" may dominate this Marketplace unless the debate stimulates the current administration to try to do something to remain in control. That something will be costly to the "People." "We the People ..." It remains a question if politics really does influence the Marketplace. My opinion of the Marketplace, however, suggests that the "People" - Investors are disillusioned by the Economy and lack of Leadership. Therefore, the "political scene" is dominating by also giving a pathetic performance.
Many important Corporate Reports are due next week and that should cause some kind of reaction that can be better understood. Remember, my primary focus - fundamentally is Valuations. I also expect that aggregate earnings will be unimpressive for the first time in a long stretch of "distortion" of earnings. Earnings improve when expenses are cut. Employees and Inventories and Closing Plants and ETC. is that "Distortion". Twelve of thirty Dow Industrials will report earnings and sales???
Sentiment of Consumers by the University of Michigan is at a 5 year high. That, is BEARISH!
General Economic opinion faded even further this week.
Not a pretty picture ...
My Inflection Point Count
My Inflection Point Count Dropped into the mid 50's. You might want to stay in touch with my Proprietary Indicator. Go to: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79023347983&a=270034212
Repeating: I continue to find little to nothing to de-rail my position that the U.S. is already in an (unannounced) Recession -- and -- that a Bearish Inflection Point is well over due.
The Market was NOT Up as Forecast!
Note: My Forecast for the General Market is Bearish, but REQUIRES "Conformations" to be active. Until my "Conformations" are in place the General Market will continue to churn out a TOP. Hence, Patience and Discipline is, as always, required.
Treasuries were Up a bit but and has looked anemic for nearly 5 months. That's Bearish!
The U.S. Dollar was Up a bit and is looking to rally some more. (My Forecast of a Rally could be delayed - see my notes above).
Oil (Crude) Last Week I Said: "However, a rally is coming". The beginning of that perhaps started this past week with Crude being Up almost 2.0%. I will wait for my Confirmations.
Gold Turned Down this past week. I am Forecasting another Pull-Back. Again, this may take time to develop.
Commodities (Comprehensive) were Down and seems to be leading Gold every so slightly and also look very Bearish.
I hope you will permit me to answer your Questions and Thoughts.
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The following are the thirteen Companies that I providing Articles and Alerts / Warnings. Remember, these are only my Bellwether Companies as a partial guide to use my Rotation Model to Identify the Currently Most Favorable Companies and ETFs to consider at the time of the above mentioned Inflection Points. AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, AT&T, XOM.
(To view my 20-Year Chart for any of the above Symbols - just Click on the Symbol ).
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Smile, have fun Investing Wisely,