Investing Wisely - Google: Forecasts / Confirmations = Results!

By: Steve Bauer | Wed, Oct 17, 2012
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It is Really Quite Simple - F (plus) C (equals) R

Forecasts

It begins with Accurate Forecasting and Analytic Procedures that produce consistent profits, then it requires Well Honed Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion -- Confirmations, and it nearly always ends with Profitable - Results. (F + C = R )

My most recent series of articles, posted here in SafeHaven.com are: AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, AT&T, XOM. (To view my 20-Year Charts of the above symbols - Click on the Symbol).

Note I - for Companies: a) These are my High Profile / Bellwether Companies I primarily use in my work / analytics to Identify Candidates for Buying in Bullish Cycles and Candidates for Shorting in Bearish Cycles. b) They are NOT often my favorite Companies to Recommend for Buying or Shorting to my Clients! c) There are often other Companies often have a much better - Risk to Reward Ratio and Profit Projection. d) Please re-read "My Rotation Model." There are always the most favorable Companies as well as the least favorable Companies on my lists for Buying in Bullish Cycles and for Shorting in Bearish Cycles of the General Stock Market. You might also want to re-read "My Methodology". e) Please read: "Being Selective" is not to be ignored when Investing Wisely.

Professors, F + C = R - Forecast / Opinion of: Google (GOOG): (July 13th.)

Quoting my (June 30th.) Forecast: "My near-term Forecast is that Google has been coming down since Marc just after I put out an initial Warning to my Clients. The foreseeable appreciation picture for Google is not nearly as bright as most financial analysts are publishing. This past year has been extraordinary for both Google and other Internet Services Companies. So far the price per share is Down about 10% and there is much more down-side on its way.

That Forecast was my first level Bullish Alert and clearly very accurate. Understand, I was on a Bullish and "Confirmed" Forecast. In early June - Google was selling for $566.00 and it is currently at $742.00. (That's a nice profit, and an accurate and profitable "Confirmed" Forecast during this three month period. I expect to be taking profits in the very near-term - remember Google is still not currently a "favored" High Profile Company).

You may also want to check my July 13th. - Report Card on Google - that too was very accurate. My most current Report Card is less positive. (please see below)

If you will read this and my last eight Company postings, here in SafeHaven.com you will note that ALL, of my previously written Articles ( about 3 months ago ) have provided: Accurate "Confirmed" Forecasts and are, ALL Profitable to date.

Note II: It is most important for you to understand that my work / analytics, as has been mentioned many times, is based on a Methodology that focuses on two key aspects of analytics. The first and primary is Fundamental Valuation and the second is Inflection Point (Technical) analysis. It is also critical for consistent profits to understand My Rotation Model.

I expect to take profits in the remaining twelve Companies listed above, in the very near-term. (Profits were taken for INCT). Unfortunately I cannot post these articles on Companies in the same manner I can communicate (Email) my private Clientele.

You might want to visit my recent article here in SafeHaven.com - Updating the Performance of these "Confirmed" Forecast. (click here):

To graphically follow my Inflection Point (Technical) analysis, please use this URL: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p50720233760&a=270034212

Current - Professors, F + C = R - Forecast / Opinion of: Google (GOOG): (October 16th.)

I am now Forecasting (Not to Be "Confirmed") a pull back (after a mini- rally) for Google. Please scroll down to "My Forecast Summary" - for all thirteen of the above Companies.

Note III: Buying / Shorting Companies (any Company) that is not in sync with my fundamental valuations and technical price movement is for me, not ever advisable, prudent and often is a very expensive mistake!

If you are interested in privately receiving my on going forecasts for any of the above Symbols or perhaps your current holdings - just send me a request by Email. I will have a couple of questions for you but promise to reply with my best guidance.

Two-Year Chart of Google

Google versus SPT 2-Year Chart

Twenty-Year Chart of Google

Google versus S&P500 20-Year Chart
Larger Image

Note IV: My Forecasts are just that, an opinion based on my fundamental - valuation, technical charts and consensus opinion this is on data as well as the information that is available at the time of publishing an article. It is the "Confirmation" of that Forecast that is most important! Until I can "Confirm" a Bullish or Bearish security to Recommend to my Clients - We Remain in Cash!

The single factor that can delay a very good Forecast is the News. News however, is only a temporary delay in the Bullish or Bearish direction of a given Forecast. That is why it is important to stay with the facts and real data and not be influenced by outside and temporal flows of media and other misguided information.

As you know by now, each week I rotate and feature another of the above Companies for your consideration of my accuracy and ability to produce consistent profitable Guidance.

If you would like my most current thoughts on this or another company, please contact me by Email. (Serious Investors only - Please!)

My Forecast Summary - (please note the dates)

Forecast Summary

Note for the above Table: Warnings have three levels. Level #1 is an initial Warning to be prepared to sell that security. Level #2 is saying this is getting serious. Level #3 is a final Warning and I am using only my Technical skills to determine - When to Sell!

Important Caveat for - My Opinions, Guidance and Forecasts:

Caveat (an example): I am currently Forecasting a pull back for Google. I must use the following explanation to qualify the "When" the pull back will actually begin. It (the "When" of a Forecast of a pull back or a rally) is always dependent and pending on much more data from my "Confirmations" procedures). (see below for my definition / explanation of "Confirmations").

On any given date it is easy for me to accurately determine a short or long-term trend. It is not all that easy to "Pin Point" the "When" a new Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point will occur.

Understand I write these article once or more times per week for my financial blogs and other Advisory Consulting and Individual Clients. And, it is a fact that the combined Bullish and Bearish Inflection Points (historically) only occur 3 - 5 times per year.

Google is another perfect example: I am Forecasting yet another Bearish Inflection Point. It (Google) may have (that) Bearish Inflection Point in the next a number of days or the Bearish Inflection Point may not occur for several more week. I can Forecast, with high probability the Inflection Point is in the making, but I need my "Confirmations" to tell me "When" the next Bullish or Bearish Infection Point occurs.

I Email my Clients on the day my "Confirmations" have all kicked- in and make specific formal (low risk) security recommendations specifically for their specific Financial (needs, goals and objectives). Remember - That event occurs just 3 - 5 times per year. Minimum Projected Profits are always a minimum of 15% per security per recommendation for Buying or Short Selling.

I hope you will want to Email me with your questions and thoughts about this Caveat and my procedures for Guidance in helping to make you consistent annual profits.

Confirmations: "Confirmations" occur "When" about a dozen of my special fundamental valuation models and technical chart "Configurations" - kick-in. This (waiting) requires much Discipline and Patience for making Wise Investment decisions. I can anticipate a "Confirmation" kicking in. It just does not often happen as expected! That, in a nut-shell, is the incredible value of my "Confirmations."

Results (Profits): Profitable Results, like most things in life, come after doing a job well. And that all comes from experience and hard work.


Report Card on Google - (July 13th.)

Company
Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
Financial Analysts are ALWAYs
WAY TOO
Bullish...
Report Card -
Grade & Direction:

(0 - 100 / A - F)
Google - (GOOG) Poor Poor Good 70 / C- - -
Descending

Current - Report Card on Google - (October 16th.)

Company
Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
Financial Analysts are ALWAYs
WAY TOO
Bullish...
Report Card -
Grade & Direction:

(0 - 100 / A - F)
-- Descending
Google - (GOOG) Very Poor Poor Good 68 / D - - -
Descending

Notes for the above Tables: My weighted Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion ratings range from Excellent to Very Poor. Grades below 90 / A are not current (never are) candidates for buying. Grades above 60 / F are not current (never are) candidates for short selling. Information and data are ever changing, so be alert. Every companies "Grade" can from a neutral grade (60 to 90 / D to B) to a buy (greater than 90) or short sale (less than 60) in a very short time.


I am the guy who wrote the 38 week course on Investment Basics. See the link on the right column (side-bar) of SafeHaven.com - Home Page.


General Market - Where are We and Where are we Going?

My fundamentals are over-valued. My "Technicals" are over-bought. My consensus opinions are much too bullish. Insiders are decidedly Selling. The economy is in much more peril than is being reported by the media.

Therefore, I continue to be bearish on the general market and the economy for the foreseeable future.

I will keep you posted ...


My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Thanks for permitting me to share my "stuff."
I would appreciate your Telling a Friend or Two about my postings here in SafeHaven.com. It is by far the best financial blog on the web.
Growing my Boutique Asset Manage Services is a process of developing confidence with you over time. I invite your questions and thoughts.


Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

 


 

Steve Bauer

Author: Steve Bauer

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Steve Bauer

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.

Dr. Bauer also writes for SeekingAlpha.com. His articles can be viewed at: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer?source=search_general&s=steven-bauer

He owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

Professionally he is a financial analyst and private asset manager / consultant / mentor.

Steve can be reached at senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2010-2013 Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

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