You already know my point of view regarding the corrective pattern in progress
since the September 14 high.
I maintain a doubtful stance that the EWP is over and price has resumed the
intermediate up trend, but price and breadth have to confirm it as soon as
possible.
The main reasons of my skepticism are:
1. Internal structure:
The bottom of the October 12 low lacks of a terminal pattern.
The strong rebound in progress looks more corrective than impulsive.
Therefore the scenario that calls for an incomplete Double Zig Zag is not
dead. (There is a pending wave (C) down).
Regarding the immediate time frame probably the assumed wave (B) is not in
place yet as long as bears claim an eod print below 1451.39.
2. Negative Divergence of RSI at the October 12 reaction low.
But the strong momentum of the current bounce has to decelerate and reverse.
For instance, if the RSI breaks above the October 5 peak it will invalidate
my short-term scenario.
It is premature to consider that price has resumed the intermediate up trend,
but only the strength of the next pull back will confirm if the bears are
still in the game validating the scenario of at least a pending wave (C) down.
Contact: If you would like to contact the author, you can e-mail him
at thewavetrading@gmail.com
The main objective of this project is to share my views on several markets
and asset classes.
In the initial stage TWT website will be a free service.
My main focus will be the equity market with SPX being the leader but I will
also follow US equity sectors, major European indices, fixed income, currencies
and commodities markets.
My analysis is based upon traditional Technical Analysis, Elliot Wave guidelines
and investor sentiment.
My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular
asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on the long and
short side and mainly with leveraged ones (2 x & 3 x).
The advantage of ETF investments is that it allows getting involved in equity
indices & sectors, currencies, fixed income, commodities etc.
Therefore the main purpose of TWT will be to establish investment strategies
regardless if the market is in an up trend or in a down trend, leveraging
the chosen scenario while managing the risk by establishing protective stop
losses.
Hence I will always define the risk, I will try to let winners run the wave
and I will cut the losses if my strategy is wrong.
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