Update of Extension of Post Coppock Curve Buy Signal Patterns in Phase Space
Here's an update of the 5 charts shown in my May 11, 2004 communication.
First comes a Cycloops phase space chart in which a complex coordinate is plotted against the natural logarithm of the NYSE Trin smoothed by six 10-day moving averages. The time span covers from 250 to 500 trading days after the 4/28/78 deep Monthly DJIA Coppock Curve buy signal and from 250 to 450 trading days after the 5/30/03 signal. This is actually an update of the 4th chart in my July 9, 2004 communication.
Second and third come line charts showing each of the above 2 coordinates separately over the 500 trading days before and after the same 2 signal dates.
Fourth comes the latest update of the Monthly DJIA line chart showing the 24 months before and after the same 2 signals.
Fifth comes a line chart of Peter Eliades' CI-NCI Ratio.
Regarding the possible pattern pair under consideration here, whether it be genuine or one merely by coincidence, not much can be gleaned from the Cycloops chart so long after the relevant Coppock Curve buy signals. Turning to the line charts, notice that the current CI-NCI Ratio "joined up" with the earlier case to the downside (after having been above it for more than a year) and then bounced, and is now dropping again. The Complex Coordinate and the Ln of the Six by Ten Trin, meanwhile, continue to emulate their earlier versions fairly well at best.
With respect to the Monthly DJIA (which is where any pattern pair matters most), in my opinion the pattern pair under consideration cannot demonstrate its existence without the DJIA dropping into (or through) the 8,000 neighborhood before June of 2005 (less than 3 months from now).