Investing Wisely - Alcoa: Forecasts + Confirmations = Results!

By: Steve Bauer | Tue, Nov 6, 2012
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It is Really Quite Simple - F (plus) C (equals) R

Investing Wisely - Intel: Forecasts + Confirmations = Results!

It begins with Accurate Forecasting and Analytic Procedures that produce consistent profits, then it requires a dozen Well Honed Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion -- Confirmations, and it ends with Profitable - Results. (F + C = R)

My weekly series of articles, posted here in SafeHaven.com are: AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, T, XOM. (To view my 20-Year Charts of the above symbols - Click on the Symbol).

Note I - for the above Companies: a) These are my High Profile / Bellwether Companies that I primarily use in my work / analytics to Identify Candidates for Buying in Bullish Cycles and Candidates for Shorting in Bearish Cycles. b) However - they are NOT often my favorite or choice Companies to Recommend for Buying or Shorting to my Clients! c) There are nearly ALWAYS other Companies that are on my Buying / Shorting List with a much better - Risk to Reward Ratio and Profit Projection. d) To Plug Into my Work / Analytics -- Please read or re-read "My Rotation Model." It is all about identifying the most favorable Companies to Buy and identifying the least favorable Companies to Short during the respective Bullish Cycles and Bearish Cycles of the General Stock Market and that particular Company. You also might also want to read or re-read "My Methodology". e) Risk and Reward Can be Calculated. I do this work on every Company and ETF because it almost totally mitigates the Risk of Investing. You might want to read my views on Risk / Reward.


Professors, F + C = R - Forecast / Opinion of: Alcoa (MSFT):

To read my (August 5th.) 3 month old Forecast for: Alcoa - Forecast: Click.

Despite the negative words in my Forecast of (August 5th.), a "Confirmed" Bullish Cycle was in process, therefore that Forecast triggered a Buy for (AA) over riding the longer-term negatives that existed for all the 13 Companies above.

An Explanation is perhaps in order: A trigger occurred on a Bullish and "Confirmed" Forecast. In early June - Alcoa was selling for $8.40 and was sold in early September. As of this posting I I have taken profits on all 13 of my "Confirmed" Bullish Forecasts.

You may also want to check my (August 5th.) - Report Card on Alcoa - that too was very accurate. My most current Report Card on (AA) is even less positive. (please see below)

ALL, of my previously written Articles (about 3 months ago) have provided: Accurate "Confirmed" Forecasts and, ALL were Profitable.

You might want to visit my recent article here in SafeHaven.com - Updating the Performance of these "Confirmed" Forecast. Performance turned out to be just a tad better than was stated in this "Performance" posting. (click here)

Note II: I hope it is important to you to understand that my work / analytics is based on My Methodology that focuses on three key aspects of analytics. a) Fundamental - Valuation, b) Inflection Point - Technical Analysis c) My special approach to - Consensus Opinion.


To graphically follow my General Market - Inflection Point (I. P.) Count -- (Rather Complex - Technical Analysis) - please use this URL: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p50720233760&a=270034212


Current - Professors, ( F + C = R ) - Forecast / Opinion of: Alcoa (AA): (November 5th.)

I am now Forecasting (Not yet "Confirmed" to my Clients) a further pull back (after a mini- rally) for Alcoa. My current Report Card on (AA) remains negative but is improving slightly.

Report Card Grades and Forecasts change much more frequently than most Investors seem to realize!

The price of (AA) has declined steadily from a high in July 2011 of $16.00 to a low of $8.00. It is currently selling for $8.50. Please scroll down to "My Forecast Summary" - for all thirteen of the above Companies -- and -- My previous and current Report Card on Alcoa.

The next Earnings Report for Alcoa will be: January 7, 2013.


Note III: Buying / Shorting Companies (any Company) that is not in sync with my fundamental valuations and technical price movement is for me, not ever advisable, prudent and often is most often a very expensive mistake!

If you are interested in privately receiving my on going Forecasts for any of the above Symbols or perhaps your current holdings - just send me a request by Email. I will have a couple of questions for you and reply with my best guidance.


Supportive Charts

Two-Year Chart of Alcoa - (Compared with S&P 500)

2-Year Chart of Alcoa versus S&P 500

Clearly and as Forecast (AA) is under-performing the S&P - 500 (SPY)

Twenty-Year Chart of Alcoa - (Compared with S&P 500)

20-Year Chart of Alcoa versus S&P500
Larger Image

Clearly and as Forecast (AA) is under-performing the S&P - 500 (SPY)

Note IV: My Forecasts are just that, an opinion based on my fundamental - valuation, technical - analytics and consensus opinion. Calculations are then made on raw data as well as the information that is available at the time of publishing an article. It is the "Confirmation" of a given Forecast that is most important!

Until I can "Confirm" a Bullish or Bearish security to Recommend to my Clients - We Remain in Cash!

The single factor that can delay a very good / accurate Forecast is the News. News however, is only a temporal delay in the Bullish or Bearish direction of a given Forecast. That is why it is important to stay with the facts and real / raw data and not be influenced by outside gibberish flows of information by the media and other misguided and inaccurate sources of information and data. Filtering all this is a full time job!

As you know by now, each week I rotate and feature another of the above 13 Companies for your evaluation of the accuracy of my Forecasts and ability to produce consistent and profitable Guidance.

If you would like my most current thoughts on this or another Company or ETF, please contact me by Email. (Serious Investors only - Please!)

My Forecast Summary for: My 13 Companies - (please note the dates)

My Forecast Summary for my 13-Companies
Larger Image

Note for the above Table: All my Bullish Alerts and Bearish Warning have three levels. Level #1 is an initial Alert / Warning to be prepared to Buy / Sell that security. Level #2 is saying / suggesting this is getting serious! Level #3 is a final Alert / Warning and I am currently using only my Technical Tool to determine - When to Buy / Sell!


Important Caveat for - My Opinions, Guidance and Forecasts: (an example):

Forecasts: I am currently Forecasting a pull back for Alcoa. I must use the following explanation to qualify the "When" the pull back will actually begin. It (the "When" of a Forecast of a pull back or a rally) is always dependent and pending on much more data from my "Confirmations" procedures). (see below for my definition / explanation of "Confirmations").

On any given date it is easy for me to accurately determine a short or long-term trend. It is not all that easy to "Pin Point" the "When" a new Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point will occur.

Understand I write these article once or more times per week for my financial blogs and other Advisory Consulting and Individual Clients. And, it is a fact that the combined Bullish and Bearish Inflection Points (historically) only occur 3 - 5 times per year.

Alcoa is another perfect example: I am Forecasting yet another Bearish Inflection Point. It (Alcoa) may have (that) Bearish Inflection Point in the next a number of days or the Bearish Inflection Point may not occur for several more week. I can Forecast, with high probability the Inflection Point is in the making, but I need my "Confirmations" to tell me "When" the next Bullish or Bearish Infection Point occurs.

I Email my Clients on the day my "Confirmations" have all kicked- in and make specific formal (low risk) security recommendations specifically for their specific Financial (needs, goals and objectives). Remember - That event occurs just 3 - 5 times per year. Minimum Projected Profits are always a minimum of 15% per security per recommendation for Buying or Short Selling.

I hope you will want to Email me with your questions and thoughts about this Caveat and my procedures for Guidance in helping to make you consistent annual profits.

Confirmations: "Confirmations" occur "When" about a dozen of my special fundamental valuation models and technical chart "Configurations" - kick-in. This (waiting) requires much Discipline and Patience for making Wise Investment decisions. I can anticipate a "Confirmation" kicking in. It just does not often happen as expected! That, in a nut-shell, is the incredible value of my "Confirmations."

Results (Profits): Profitable Results, like most things in life, come after doing a job well. And that all comes from experience and hard work.

Report Card on Alcoa - (August 5th.)

Company
/ Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
Financial Analysts are
ALWAYs WAY TOO Bullish...
Report Card -
Grade & Direction:

(0 - 100 / A - F)
Alcoa - (AA) Good Poor Good 68 / D+ --- Descending

Current - Report Card on Alcoa - (November 6th.)

Company
/ Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
Financial Analysts are
ALWAYs WAY TOO Bullish...
Report Card -
Grade & Direction:

(0 - 100 / A - F) --
Descending
Alcoa - (AA) Good Poor Good 71 / C- --- Descending

Notes for the above Tables: My weighted Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion ratings range from Excellent to Very Poor. Grades below 90 / A are not current (never are) candidates for buying. Grades above 60 / F are not current (never are) candidates for short selling. Information and data are ever changing, so be alert. Every companies "Grade" can from a neutral grade (60 to 90 / D to B) to a buy (greater than 90) or short sale (less than 60) in a very short time.

I am the guy who wrote the 38 week course on Investment Basics. See the link on the right column (side-bar) of SafeHaven.com - Home Page.

General Market - Where are We and Where are we Going?

My "Fundamentals" are over-valued. My "Technicals" are over-bought. My "Consensus Opinions" are much too bullish. "Insiders" are decidedly Selling. "Interest Rates and Dividends" are on the rise. The "Economy" is in much more peril than is being reported to you by the U.S. Media. Whew!

This is historically a Very Negative time frame in the Stock Market!

Therefore, I continue to be Bearish on the General Market and the Economy for the foreseeable future. This is a "Warning" that you may want to follow ...

I will keep you posted ...

My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

I invite you to consider opening an Email Dialog. Perhaps I can provide the Direction and Guidance you have been seeking. Thanks for permitting me to share my "stuff."

I would appreciate your Telling a Friend or Two about my postings here in SafeHaven.com. It is by far the best, most honest and supportive financial blog on the web.

For me, Growing my Boutique Asset Manage Services is a process of developing Confidence and Trust with you over time. I invite your questions and thoughts.

Smile, Have Fun - "Investing Wisely"

 


 

Steve Bauer

Author: Steve Bauer

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Steve Bauer

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.

Dr. Bauer also writes for SeekingAlpha.com. His articles can be viewed at: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer?source=search_general&s=steven-bauer

He owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

Professionally he is a financial analyst and private asset manager / consultant / mentor.

Steve can be reached at senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2010-2013 Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

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