Commodity Prices - Bubble Top or More to Go?

By: Ron Griess | Tue, Mar 22, 2005
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In this Observation, we are going to use the Reuters/CRB Futures Index (CRB) as our proxy for commodity prices. We will point out what might be a repeating price pattern.

We began our analysis with a simple 20% swing line chart of our daily CRB price data back to 1956. Upon examination of that chart, we were struck with the similarities of the price patterns of the CRB in the late 1970's/early 1980's and the current pattern that has been unfolding since 1999. We ran the chart past our good friend Don, and he suggested going back one more pattern to the late 1960's/early 1970's.

Here is a monthly chart (updated through March 18, 2005) with swings overlaid in orange and labeled with dates and prices of tops and bottoms.

The following chart shows what we feel appears to be three repeating patterns. Each pattern is color coded orange teal or black and numbered 1, 2 3 and 4.

The statistics for the three patterns is shown in the following table:

Discussion Notes:

Final Comments:


Ron Griess

Author: Ron Griess

Ron Griess, Proprietor
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