Saturday (morning) Weekly Market Wrap for November 17, 2012
Good Morning: It's Saturday again ...
Accuracy in Forecasting is what it is all about:
This all dates back to over 50 years of my work / analytics of Inflection Points.
I have written a large number of articles on my Methodology which is based on the early and clear Forecasting and Identification of all Inflection Points. I know of no other source of information and data that provides LEADING guidance with this consistent accuracy.
All my articles are based on "My Methodology" - You might consider spending some time reviewing the following URL: http://www.safehaven.com/article/27312/my-methodology
The Market for the Past Week
It was a good week again if you are Bearish and I / We (Clients) are definitely "Bearish." I continue to look for a Bounce / Mini-Rally that just does not materialize. That is partially explainable due to the election. It also is becoming clear that Wall Street and many of the "People" are not happy with the outcome of the election. Perhaps, reality is setting in that Earnings, the Economies of the World and much MORE is not all that positive.
I have just completed a very involved review of a Client's portfolio and I cannot find very much to be Bullish about. When it (a Mini-Rally) does happen, it will "sink the ship" and all kinds of negatives will begin to be reported by Washington and other Capitals of the world. As if there is not enough "doom and gloom" already.
Remember, I have said: the U.S. is in an (unannounced) Recession, that and much more will be "announced" AFTER the Election. I believe nine European Countries are IN Formal / Announced Recession. The U.S. and some Asian Countries are also in peril.
More on that tomorrow - exclusively in my "Client Weekly ("Detailed") Forecast - Update."
Repeating: I will move on to the Fiscal Clift(s) that these media jerks have switched to as something nobody truly understands. And not "understanding" is what the media and Wall Street pray and feast on...
Fiscal Cliff Defined:
A combination of expiring tax cuts and across-the-board government spending cuts scheduled to become effective Dec. 31, 2012. The idea behind the fiscal cliff was that if the federal government allowed these two events to proceed as planned, they would have a detrimental effect on an already shaky economy, perhaps sending it back into an official recession as it cut household incomes, increased unemployment rates and undermined consumer and investor confidence. At the same time, it was predicted that going over the fiscal cliff would significantly reduce the federal budget deficit.
This is Well Worth Your Reading: http://pragcap.com/stepping-off-the-profits-cliff
For the week, the Dow and the Nasdaq lost another one and one-half percent. Hum!
Could it be that even the President of the United States cannot fix the Economies of the World or gain any confidence in the Financial Markets of the World? I have been giving you the answer for years!
The headlines also validate my on going negative position on the leadership in Washington. "Looking to Cook a Deal on the Fiscal Cliff." When if Ever has "cooking a deal" be a solid answer to any serious, I said SERIOUS, problem?
My Valuation Forecast of not such good Earnings was again endorsed and magnified this past week.
Europe and Asia are not doing any better.
Not a pretty picture for the foreseeable future ...
My Inflection Point (I. P.) Count
Rebounded two weeks ago Friday to 50+ and yesterday fell back to the low 40s. I continue to be impressed with the "Accuracy" and "Sensitivity" of My New Proprietary Indicator.
You might want to stay in touch with My (NEW) Proprietary Indicator. Go to: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79023347983&a=270034212
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Repeating: I continue to find little to nothing to de-rail my position that the U.S. is already in an (unannounced) Recession -- and -- that a "Confirmed" Bearish Inflection Point is well over due.
Again -- The Market was NOT Up as Forecast!
Note: My Forecast for the General Market is Bearish, but REQUIRES "Confirmations" to be active. Until my "Confirmations" are in place (Kick-In) I cannot take further Bearish Positions.
Treasuries were Up as would be expected for the week. A Mini-Pull Back is in the making. Moving sideways since September 2011 is not a good way to invest you money!
The U.S. Dollar was Up a bit and is looking to rally some more. My Rally now looks like it is Topping. I will take profits very soon.
Oil (Crude) was Up over one percent again. A Rally is in the making, however I would expect a pull back to begin within a couple weeks or so.
Gold was Down since the Election and does not look at all positive.
Silver was also down and is tracking Gold.
Commodities (Comprehensive) were Up a bit. It does seem to be bottoming. Perhaps a rally is in the making.
I hope you will permit me to answer your Questions and Thoughts.
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The following are the 13 Companies and 13 ETFs that I providing Articles and Alerts / Warnings. Remember, these are only my Bellwether Companies as a partial guide to use my Rotation Model to Identify the Currently Most Favorable Companies and ETFs to consider at the time of the above mentioned Inflection Points.
Companies & ETFs: AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, AT&T, XOM,BJK, IAI, IAT, IGV, KOL, XAR, XBI, XES, XHB, XME, XOP, XPH, XSD. (To view my 20-Year Chart for any of the above Symbols - just Click on the Symbol).
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Smile, Have Fun - "Investing Wisely,"