Investing Wisely - Apple: Forecasts / Confirmations = Profitable Results!

By: Steve Bauer | Wed, Nov 21, 2012
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It is Really Quite Simple

It begins with Accurate Forecasting and Analytic Procedures, then it requires Well Honed Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion Conformations, and it ends with Profitable Results. (F / C = PR). This simple 1, 2, 3 formula has produced consistent annual profits for both me and my Clients for many years.


Professors, F / C = PR --- Opinion of: Apple (AAPL)

Investing Wisely - IGV: Forecasts + Confirmations = Results!

My most recent articles have been posted here in SafeHaven.com are: AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, AT&T, XOM. (To view my 20-Year Charts of the above symbols - Click on the Symbol).

You might want to re-read my archive of articles to confirm the Accuracy of my Forecasts of all of these Companies.

The above (F / C = PR) is as Accurate and Profitable - - formula / methodology as anything you will find in the financial blogs you may be reading. It is a very Conservative and Low Risk process of Investing Wisely. That is the opinion of many of my Followers and Clients. I hope you agree and will want to plug into my analytics for a closer look. All it takes is an Email.


Professors Quarterly Forecast for Apple

My past two Quarterly - Articles for (AAPL) can be found in my Archive, just go to Authors on the Home Page and scroll down to my name - Steve Bauer. They were and are - Right on the Button.

You will also find that I write - random - Special Updates on both Company and ETF Articles. My latest happened to be on Apple. Again, I believe you will find it to be very "Accurate."

URL: http://www.safehaven.com/article/27649/apple-inc-special-update

My near-term Forecast is that Apple is has been Bearish except for the June Rally that I have documented with performance. It has been coming down exactly as long as I have put out an initial Bearis h Warnings (mid-September) to my Clients and wrote a definitive article in another financial blog and here in SafeHaven.com.

The foreseeable appreciation picture for Apple is not nearly as bright as most financial analysts are publishing. Longer-term Valuation forecasts are however amongst the strongest for the Personal Computer Industry Group and the Marketplace.

When the General Market turns Bearish and is in trouble (and it IS in trouble) Companies like AAPL will follow suit - and also head south. If you need to confirm this remark please (see the 20-Year Chart) for AAPL or any other Company listed above. That is a simple axiom of "Investing Wisely." This fact is particularly true when a Company has Poor Valuations at the time the General Market first starts showing weakness. My below charts also tell that story very clearly. This being true, Apple will definitely continue to participate in this General Market pull back. It is off its highs by over 20% (except for the current Bounce / Mini-Rally) but I Forecast that there will be notable hurt in the following months ahead.

My Valuations and Forecasts for AAPL, this past year has been completely on target for both Apple and other Computer / Technology Companies and that is -- on balance they have not being all that profitable to own.

Most of the Companies I feature pay a dividend. (Please read my recent article for Seniors regarding doubling your monthly income). Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end. Many Dow Companies and others are hurting a hurt - and - that is just plain (unacceptable asset management) if you have been advised by anyone to HOLD.

My Fundamental Valuation for AAPL remains a minus 10% - 15% or more for the foreseeable future. The first leg down took this "Darling of Wall Street" down over 20%. Hum. . .


Within my professional asset management for my Clients, I offer (more timely and specific) Alerts and Recommendations for Companies that are like AAPL. Yes, a Pull-Back is my Short-Term (3 months to 6 months) Forecast, but the good news is that -- one day again AAPL will be a very profitable company to own. Unfortunately, that day is not project-able and therefore Prudence is the best Investment Strategy for AAPL at this time.

Let me know if you are interested in my Guidance and Direction of your Portfolio.


Notes: A snapshot of -- How I Get My Accuracy, Results and Profits ...

It all starts with what I call Comparative Analytics. There are several thousand U.S. Companies in the New York and Nasdaq markets. Each Company is a component of a Sector as well as an Industry Group. There are about 12 - 15 Sectors and well over 200 Industry Groups to monitor on a weekly basis.

I spend a lot of my time breaking all of these components down to a manageable size. My analytic work, for doing this, uses my (Unique) Valuation and time tested Technical (Proprietary) Indicator - Methodology. This process offers me very clear guidance as to both the direction of the Marketplace as well as for the near to short-term direction of each Sector, Industry Group and Company / ETF.

All this work / analytics is continuously in place to quickly review any Company or ETF. This is necessary because, you must agree, the Marketplace changes direction (Bullish & Bearish Inflection Points) very unexpectedly. It is also rather easy to identify the Companies and ETFs that have the highest probability of meaningfully contributing of (ascending) after a clear Bullish Inflection point for the next ensuing rally. This works the same (but opposite) within a Bearish Inflection Point. Again, it is easy to identify the Companies and ETFs (Inverse) that have the highest probability of (descending) in a Bearish environment.

This has much to do with My Rotation Model and use of the Bell-Curve to describe why I maintain very precise List of Bullish Candidates that are Currently - In-Favor and a second List of Bearish Candidates that are Currently - Out-Of-Favor. Have these Lists constantly being up and down graded due to changes in my Fundamental - Valuations and Technical - Analysis is critical for maintaining consistent annual profits. Investors simple cannot react quickly enough in today's Marketplace because they do not have either the Tools or the Lists in place at the time a new Inflection Point occurs.

That is how "Investing Wisely" works for me as well as for my Clients! In over 50 years I have never found that Investors or Financial Analysts / Asset Managers understand and apply this important basic and on-going process to meet our objective of -- consistently making money (using low-risk strategies) in the stock market.



Forecasts / Confirmations / Results

Forecasts are just that, an opinion based on the fundamental - valuation, technical charts and consensus opinion on data as well as the information that is now publicly available, on the Internet, at the time of publishing this or any article, forecast or opinion. The single factor that can upset a very good Forecast is the News. That is why it is important to stay with the facts and real data and not be influenced by outside and temporal flows of media and most often mis-guided information and data. You may have already noted that each week I feature a new and well-known Company for your evaluation of my ability to provide consistent and accurate guidance and direction to your "Investing Wisely." I am sorry that cannot possible keep a weekly update on my specific Company and ETF Forecasts for you. I do provide this service for my Clientele.

If you would like my most current thoughts on Apple or another Company, please contact me by Email. (Serious Investors Only - Please!)


Confirmations

I Love Confirmations

"Confirmations" are simply a review of a dozen or so criteria of my fundamental valuations, technical analytics and consensus opinions - from my "Lists" - previously developed of my Bullish / Bearish Company & ETF Forecasts. This work / analytics is "Confirmed" prior to making investment recommendations to my Clients. They (Conformations) only "click in" - a day or at most two days ahead of my making Recommendation to take a specific position - either - Bullish or Bearish. During the dormant time frames when I am not comfortable making Recommendations -- I Stay In Cash.

"I Love Confirmations" because they are my reward for long hours of hard work / analytics. They then provide me with professional affirmation that I am doing the job very well - that I am being paid to do. That's Sweet...

Results -- Profitable Results, like most things in life, come after doing a superior job over the years. A superior job comes only from much experience, dedication and hard work. And, as said above - that for me is - "Sweet."


The Professors - Report Card on: Apple (AAPL)

Company
/ Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
Report Card -
Grade & Direction:

(0 - 100 / A - F). --
Flat - Ascending - Descending.
Apple (AAPL) Good -- Poor -- Good -- 76 / C -- Descending

Notes: My weighted Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion ratings range from Excellent to Very Poor. Grades below 90 / A are not current (never are) candidates for buying. Grades above 60 / F are not current (never are) candidates for short selling. Information and data are ever changing, so be alert. Every companies "Grade" can from a neutral grade (60 to 90 / D to B) to a buy (greater than 90) or short sale (less than 60) in a very short time.

Why on Earth anyone would invest their money in other than an "A" Rated and Confirmed Company or ETF is beyond my capacity to understand!

The twenty-year chart of Apple is offered to give you a perspective. "Perspective" is yet another tool for making money that is seldom employed.

My article here in SafeHaven.com on "My Rotation Model" supports the above Notes. (click here).


Two-Year (Comparative Percent) Chart of Apple and S&P -- SPY - ETF

2-Year Chart of Apple and S&P -- SPY - ETF

You can clearly see that (AAPL) and (SPY) are tracking each other very well! That should be a "Warning." Please - Do not Buy or Short Apple, without talking with a seasoned financial analyst or perhaps visiting with me via Email.

Twenty-Year Chart of Apple and S&P - SPY- ETF

20-Year Chart of AAPL with a Compare of the S&P (SPY)
Larger Image

I suggest that you to take a long look at this 20-year chart. Having a longer-term perspective of a possible future investment will always give you a more consistent bottom line. Comparing Apple with the SPDR, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) -- should tell you a very compelling story of how I go about profiting in the stock market.


I am the guy who wrote the 38 week course on Investment Basics. See the link on the right column (side-bar) of SafeHaven.com - Home Page.


The Professors -- Weekly -- (Bullish Alert or Bearish Warning) --- For the General Market:

Bearish Warning

My Fundamentals are over-valued. My Technicals are over-bought. My Consensus Opinions are much too bullish. Insiders are selling, and Interest Rates and Dividends are on the rise.

The Economies of the World's Economic Powers are in much more peril than is being reported by the Media.

That means there is going to continue to be a great deal of hurt for the foreseeable future.

You are purposefully being lied to by Washington, (other world capitals) -- Wall Street -- the Media.

Therefore, I remain Bearish on the General Market, all Sectors, most all Industry Groups as well as the Economies of the World. I further believe holding long positions in most Mutual Funds and other Financial Advisors for the foreseeable future is not WISE!

The U.S. is already into an (un-announced) Recession! You just have not been told by your government, as usual! However, 9 European Countries have confirmed to their "People" that they are "In Recession". Certain Asian Countries will follow.

I will keep you posted ...

As for What to Do? The answer to that Question is what I get paid for. The above is and will be Accurate advice but, if you are not "plugged in" to your financial advisor on a personal (one on one & 24/7) basis you will NEVER have the Results that you DESERVE!

Competing with a professional in sports, academics or the stock market is Not Recommended!


Please visit my personal blog, if you have not followed it lately. There is a special announcement that hopefully will make sense to you that I would like to be paid for my experience, accuracy and hard work.

My Blog: http://twitter.com/InvestRotation


My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com
Thanks for permitting me to share my -- pragmatic and candid -- "stuff."
I would appreciate your Telling a Friend or Two about my postings here in SafeHaven.com. It is by far the best financial blog on the web.


Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

 


 

Steve Bauer

Author: Steve Bauer

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Steve Bauer

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.

Dr. Bauer also writes for SeekingAlpha.com. His articles can be viewed at: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer?source=search_general&s=steven-bauer

He owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

Professionally he is a financial analyst and private asset manager / consultant / mentor.

Steve can be reached at senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2010-2013 Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

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