Saturday (morning) Weekly Market Wrap for November 24, 2012
Good Morning: It's Saturday again ...
Accuracy in Forecasting -- Is What it is All About:
This all dates back to over 50 years of my work / analytics of Raw Data Interpretation and Inflection Points.
I have written a large number of articles on my Methodology which is based on the early and clear Forecasting and Identification of all Inflection Points. I know of no other source of information and data that provides LEADING guidance with this consistent accuracy.
All my articles are based on "My Methodology" - You might consider spending some time reviewing the following URL: http://www.safehaven.com/article/27312/my-methodology
The Market for the Past Week
It was a good week again if you are Bullish. I remain Bearish and I / We (Clients) are definitely "Bearish." The Bounce / Mini-Rally I have Forecast is clearly in place. Remember, there is only one thing that can DELAY an Accurate Forecast -- That is - NEWS.
We have had plenty of that "NEWS" for several weeks and this past Week was focused on Black Friday. So, now - HYPE - will be the focus and that (OFTEN DISTORTED) picture should last awhile. That just may translate into a continuation of this past 5 days of being UP.
On the other hand I would not be surprised if we see some deterioration in the coming Market Sessions. I suggest the euphoric and unsupported move was -- Too Much / Too Fast.
I repeat what I have said: the U.S. is in an (unannounced) Recession, that and much more will be "announced" AFTER the Election. I believe you will find that -- nine European Countries are IN Formal / Announced Recession. The U.S. and some Asian Countries are also in peril.
More on that tomorrow - exclusively in my "Client Weekly ("Detailed") Forecast - Update."
The "Fiscal Clift(s)" will also not soon go away...
This is Well Worth Your Reading:
For the week, the Dow and the Nasdaq were Up - Big - Too Big. Hum!
My Fundamental - Valuation Work / Forecast of not such good Earnings was again endorsed and magnified this past week.
Europe and Asia are not doing any better.
Not a pretty picture for the foreseeable future ...
My Inflection Point (I.P.) Count
Rebounded on Friday to almost 50. I continue to be impressed with the "Accuracy" and "Sensitivity" of My New Proprietary Indicator.
I have just written a program that goes even further into the "guts and bones" of this Indicator and it caught the rally two days before it happened. Believe me, I do not believe in or use a Crystal Ball!
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I would appreciate your becoming a "Follower" and "Vote" to keep this Indicator Public. You will have to use this URL to participate.
I am requesting you to do this - so that StockCharts.com keeps me "live" on their Public List. Just click on "Follower" and / or "Vote" in the upper right corner after entering the following URL: http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666
Repeating: I continue to find little to nothing to de-rail my position that the U.S. is already in an (unannounced) Recession -- and -- that a "Confirmed" Bearish Inflection Point is well over due.
My Forecast - Bounce / Mini-Rally has now materialized and will likely get a bit scary if you agree with the above paragraph. I understand that MANY of you do NOT agree, but I stopped reading and listening to other peoples opinions (OPO) over 40 years ago. My "Stuff" / Methodology works very well -- without OPOs.
The Stock Market - Indices was Up this past Week as Forecast!
The Stock Market - Breadth was Up this past Week as Forecast!
They are currently - In Sync.
There is an important difference ...
Note: My Forecast for the General Market (Indices and Breadth) is Bearish, but REQUIRES "Confirmations" to be active. Until my "Confirmations" are in place (Kick-In) I cannot take further Bearish Positions.
Treasuries were Down as would be expected for the week. A Mini-Pull Back is in the making. Investing in Treasuries that have been moving sideways since September 2011 is not a good way to invest you money! Warnings were offered then and now!
The U.S. Dollar was Down a bit - following Treasuries, but are is looking to rally some more. Now that is a Conflict between Treasuries and the U.S. Dollar? My Forecast Rally now looks like it is Topping or has Topped.
Oil (Crude) was Up over one percent again. A Mini-Rally is in the making, however I would expect a pull back to begin again.
Gold was Up again this past week and is in a Rally that will likely fail. Remember the Highs were way back in August 2011 at $1925. The current price of $1750 is a long ways from getting excited again. The Gold Bugs are always excited and seldom have much to support their excitement. At least for well over a year!
Silver was also Up and is currently tracking Gold.
Commodities (Comprehensive) were Up a couple percent. It does seem to be bottoming, but I remain Bearish.
I hope and invite you to permit me to reply your Questions and Thoughts.
My Email Address: firstname.lastname@example.org
The following are the 13 Companies and 13 ETFs that I providing Articles and Alerts / Warnings. Remember, these are only my Bellwether Companies as a partial guide to use my Rotation Model to Identify the Currently Most Favorable Companies and ETFs to consider at the time of the above mentioned Inflection Points.
Companies & ETFs - (Included in my On Going - Forecasts): AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, AT&T, XOM,BJK, IAI, IAT, IGV, KOL, XAR, XBI, XES, XHB, XME, XOP, XPH, XSD.
(To view my 20-Year Charts for Companies and / or 5-Year Charts for ETF for any of the above Symbols - just Click on the Symbol).
StockCharts (ALL (50 or so) High Profile - Bellwether Companies) Public List: http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666
I hope you will become a regular Follower and perhaps a valued Client. My work / analytics should be very compelling for your considering working with me.
Smile, Have Fun - "Investing Wisely,"