Saturday (morning) Weekly Market Wrap for December 1, 2012
Good Morning: It's Saturday again...
Accuracy in Forecasting -- Is What it is All About:
This all dates back to over 50 years of my work / analytics of Raw Data Interpretation and Inflection Points.
I have written a large number of articles on my Methodology which is based on the early and clear Forecasting and Identification of all Inflection Points. I know of no other source of information and data that provides LEADING guidance with this consistent accuracy.
All my articles are based on "My Methodology" - You might consider spending some time reviewing the following URL: http://www.safehaven.com/article/27312/my-methodology
The Market for the Past Week
It was a good (perhaps better said - OK) week again if you are Bullish. I remain Bearish and I / We (Clients) are definitely "Bearish." The Bounce / Mini-Rally I have Forecast is clearly in place. Remember, there is only one thing that can DELAY an Accurate Forecast -- That is - NEWS.
We have had plenty of that "NEWS" for several weeks and this past Week was focused on the Fiscal Cliff. A Democracy promotes -- Gridlock -- and that is what we ALSO have, not that Gridlock is so unusual. Billions will also be spend on satisfying both Republicans and Democrats in order to -- Do What is Right for the PEOPLE!
So, now - HYPE - will be the focus and that ( OFTEN DISTORTED ) picture should last awhile. That just may translate into a continuation of this past 5 days of the Marketplace going NoWhere.
It was reported that Personal Income is Flat and Spending is Down. Not Good!
The Forecast - "Bounce / Mini-Rally" still will do it's thing.
I repeat what I have said: the U.S. is in an (unannounced) Recession, that and much more will be "announced" AFTER the Election. I believe you will find that -- nine European Countries are IN Formal / Announced Recession. The U.S. and some Asian Countries are also in peril.
More on that tomorrow - exclusively in my "Client Weekly ("Detailed") Forecast - Update."
The "Fiscal Cliff(s)" will also not soon go away...
This Article is Well Worth Your Reading:
I doubt it!
For the week, the Dow and the Nasdaq were Up - just a TINY - BIT. Hum!
My Fundamental - Valuation Work / Forecast of -- Not such good Earnings was again endorsed and magnified this past week.
Europe and Asia are not doing any better.
Not a pretty picture for the foreseeable future...
My Inflection Point (I. P.) Count
It closed the week at an anemic 50. So far in this "Bounce / Mini-Rally" it is likely telling us that my Forecast for a pull-back is coming sooner rather than later. Remember "News" can change that picture and often does! I continue to be impressed with the "Accuracy" and "Sensitivity" of My (New) Proprietary Indicator.
I have just written a program that goes even further into the "guts and bones" of this Indicator and it caught the rally two days before it happened. Believe me, I do not believe in or use a Crystal Ball!
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Repeating: I continue to find little to nothing to de-rail my position that the U.S. is already in an (unannounced) Recession -- and -- that a "Confirmed" Bearish Inflection Point is well over due.
My Forecast - Bounce / Mini-Rally has now materialized and will likely get a bit scary before it is over. I understand that MANY of you do NOT agree, but I stopped reading and listening to other peoples opinions (OPO) over 40 years ago.
My "Stuff" / Methodology works very well for both Me and My Clients over those years -- without OPOs.
* The Stock Market - (Indices) was Up this past Week as Forecast!
* The Stock Market - (Breadth) was Up this past Week as Forecast!
* The Stock Market - (Insiders) was Up this past Week as Forecast!
* The Stock Market - (High Yield Bonds) was Up this past Week as Forecast!
Weekly Conclusion: They are currently - In Sync. And they all have Deteriorating Technical Indicators. Understand that: There is an important difference with each of these Market Indicators . . . I know of no Financial Analyst that has a handle on - these four important and key Indicators.
Note: My Forecast for the General Market (Indices / Breadth / Insider / Bond Yield) is Bearish, but REQUIRES "Confirmations" to be active. Until my "Confirmations" are in place ( Kick-In ) I cannot take further Bearish Positions.
Treasuries were Up for the week. A Mini-Pull Back is in the making. Investing in Treasuries that have been moving sideways since September 2011 is not a good way to Invest Your Money! Warnings were offered then and now!
The U.S. Dollar was Down a bit - but seem to be following Treasuries. My Forecast Rally now looks like it is Topping or has Topped.
Oil (Crude) was Up a bit again. A Mini-Rally is in force, however I would expect a pull back to begin again rather soon.
Gold was Down. I said last week that the little Rally will likely fail. It's in the Process. Remember the Highs were way back in August 2011 at $1925. The current price of $1750 is a long ways from getting excited again. The Gold Bugs are always excited and seldom have much to support their excitement from what I read -- they too are just doing their thing!.
Silver was also Down but not as much as would be expected form Gold being Down? It is currently tracking Gold.
Commodities (Comprehensive) were Up a tiny bit. A Pull-Back is in the making.
I hope and invite you to permit me to reply your Questions and Thoughts.
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The following are the 13 Companies and 13 ETFs that I providing Articles and Alerts / Warnings. Remember, these are only my Bellwether Companies as a partial guide to use my Rotation Model to Identify the Currently Most Favorable Companies and ETFs to consider at the time of the above mentioned Inflection Points.
(To view my 20-Year Charts for Companies and / or 5-Year Charts for ETF for any of the above Symbols - just Click on the Symbol).
StockCharts (ALL (50 or so) High Profile - Bellwether Companies) Public List: http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666
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Smile, Have Fun - "Investing Wisely,"