The State of the Trend

By: George Krum | Sun, Dec 9, 2012
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Last week we suggested that despite positive seasonals, the SPX will have trouble overcoming resistance at the 1420 - 1425 level. After testing this zone twice, the index finished the week just below it:

SPX

The chart above shows that the index has little room to wiggle, and next week should bring either a breakout above resistance, or a breakdown from the uptrending channel.

Part of the uncertainty associated with the next move of the SPX stems from the fact that there is a real tug-of-war going on between the other two major U.S. indices. While the DJIA has already broken above its recent highs:

DJIA

The NDX is in an even weaker position than the SPX, thanks in large part to APPL.

The last couple of weeks the SPX has started the week in negative territory, only to rebound on Wednesday. From a seasonal point of view, the market is entering one of its worst weeks of the year:

However, there is a FOMC meeting on the 11th and 12th , with positive bias going into it, and any decisive and coordinated market move is likely to be delayed until after the meeting.

 


 

George Krum

Author: George Krum

George Krum
www.citdates.blogspot.com

George Krum is the author of the "CIT Dates" blog, and the following apps available from iTunes:

OddsTrader - uses the power of Hurst Channels to produce price and time targets, and combines them with proper risk and position size management.

OT Trend - helps you quantify and forecast the seemingly random ebb and flow of stock, index or mutual fund movement.

OT Fibonacci - automates the process of applying Fibonacci numbers, ratios and time series to any security.

OT Seasonal - allows you to perform seasonal analysis on practically any security from around the world and to build long-term forecasts and models.

OT Pairs - is the first mobile app that gives users access to one of the most profitable and time tested hedge fund trading strategies.

OT Pivots - combines the power of Pivot lines with cycles and automatic signal generation.

Gann 9 - is the only financial app that allows users to effortlessly apply the legendary W.D. Gann's tools and methods for trading (including the Square of 9).

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